Friday, July 13, 2007

Rudd, ALP popular in NSW

Happy Landing 2
Originally uploaded by Sydney Weasel
Headline news for some. One article states that the ALP are more popular now than they have been since .. since .. the last federal election.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

PM's home a Labor stronghold
By Dennis Shanahan
LABOR holds an election-winning lead in almost every state, but NSW has emerged as the party's new stronghold as its voters turn to Kevin Rudd.

Older voters are also turning against John Howard, with Newspoll analysis showing support among those over 50 going Labor's way for the first time since the last election in 2004.

In the past three months, Labor support in NSW has jumped to 51 per cent in primary votes, giving Labor a 17-point lead over the Coalition in the Prime Minister's home state.

After the calculation of second preferences, Labor's lead is a record 61 per cent to the Coalition's 39 per cent.

NSW high for Rudd

Dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister in NSW has lifted to a high of 49 per cent since the 2004 election and Mr Rudd has opened his lead to 12 points over Mr Howard as preferred prime minister in the state with the most seats.

Mr Howard is facing a determined fight for his northwestern Sydney seat of Bennelong against Labor star recruit Maxine McKew, the former ABC presenter.

An electoral redistribution in NSW has also cost the Nationals the seat of Gwydir and put the Liberal seat of Macquarie in jeopardy.

The Coalition had expected an onslaught in Queensland and South Australia but hoped to hold its ground in NSW, with the redistributed western Sydney Labor seat of Parramatta returning to the Liberals.

But according to a detailed analysis of Newspoll surveys conducted between April and July exclusively for the Australian, NSW has outstripped South Australia and Queensland as the Labor strongholds.

In November last year, before Mr Rudd became Labor leader, Labor's primary vote in NSW was equal to the Coalition's on 39 per cent.

According to the Newspoll analysis, the ALP's primary vote in the past two quarters has gone from 47 and then to 51 per cent.

Although he was a West Australian MP, Mr Rudd's predecessor Kim Beazley moved temporarily to Sydney in an attempt to bolster Labor's support in the most populous state and on the eastern seaboard.

Queensland holding steady

In Queensland, the home state of the Opposition Leader, political support for both sides has remained steady with Labor in front 47 per cent to 39 per cent on primary votes.

On a two-party-preferred basis, Labor leads the Coalition in Queensland, its lead unchanged at 54 per cent to 46 per cent.

The home of the mining boom, Western Australia, which has undergone a surge in real estate prices, remains the Coalition's best state.

On primary votes the Coalition leads Labor 43 per cent to 40 per cent and is level on two-party-preferred votes.

Satisfaction with Mr Rudd dropped in Western Australia from 58 per cent to 53 per cent over the past three months, and dissatisfaction rose five points to 23 per cent.

Satisfaction with Mr Howard remained steady in the west and it is the only state where Mr Howard leads Mr Rudd on preferred prime minister - 45 per cent to 39 per cent.

In South Australia, where Labor hopes to pick up two or three marginal seats from the Coalition, Labor and Mr Rudd remain well ahead of the Government.

But after a drastic collapse in support in the first three months of Mr Rudd's leadership, the Coalition has regained ground and primary support has risen from 34 per cent to 39 per cent in the past three months.

Labor's support in South Australia fell two points to 45 per cent, resulting in a 10-point turnaround for the Coalition on second preferences to 44 per cent against Labor's 56 per cent.

Over-50s turning away

The Coalition and Mr Howard both suffered a fall in support among voters aged over 50, with the Coalition's primary support dropping to 44 per cent, down from 46, and the ALP's rising two points to 45 per cent.

The over-50s have been a crucial group for the Coalition in recent elections.

Satisfaction with Mr Howard fell in this group to below 50 per cent for the first time this term, and Mr Rudd's support rose two points to 41 per cent on preferred prime minister compared with Mr Howard's unchanged 44 per cent.