Australian Federal Election 2019

The polls have not closed yet, but no one will be bothered by this opinion piece now, so I can make my prediction and watch it come true. Press are anticipating a close election. I'm not. I believe the Liberals will be tossed out of office and ALP will have a sizeable majority. UAP will be irrelevant. As will Pauline Hanson's One Nation. There will be lots of finger pointing for the Libs as the ALP, and media celebrate Bill Shorten's PM win. Some will say Shorten has good characteristics that have been disguised. But the real reason the Libs will lose is because Peter Costello's leadership transition theory is wrong. Conservatives need to be led by conviction politics of which Turnbull had none and Morrison has the wrong type. Libs need economic conservatives, not social conservatives.

On the positive side, not many Liberals will be in opposition. Hopefully Abbott will still be around. Hopefully Warren Mundine won't have been fatally compromised. UAP will have proven the folly of throwing money at elections. The compromised and inept electoral office will claim that voter fraud did not matter. It would be nice if Bernardi's conservatives did well, but they ran on mainly a social conservative agenda too. Australia will feel a lot of pain as Shorten and left wing ALP run their agenda. But in three or four years, they will have to face a Liberal leader running on conviction, fighting for freedom. Putting forward a small government agenda as economic conservatives.

Here are some social conservative moments I've seen on campaign. A Liberal candidate in the state election running for what should be a safe seat, advocating book burning a child's story book about friendship because he'd identified it as being pro gay. A Liberal candidate in an ALP seat saying she felt Julia Gillard was a poor PM because she was 'barren.' In fact, Gillard was a hopeless PM because she had awful, Shorten like policies which hurt Australia and promoted corruption, nothing to do with her personal choices.

Thing is, social conservatism is something ALP does well in taking for granted. No social conservative is going to favour Libs over ALP. It is dog whistling for people who might feel like voting Libs, but won't as they are being too prescriptive.
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Update. I was very happy to be very wrong. Sorry for the loss of Abbott, but he will be useful elsewhere, now.
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https://www.facebook.com/LiberalPartyAustralia/videos/435853813856891/?t=2