Monday, December 01, 2014

Mon Dec 1st Todays News

Women who abandon their children sometimes to death, are mentally ill and need help. The public desire to punish such behaviour is understandable, but what is better is to understand the issue and work to prevent it from happening. Such women are not fit mothers, but they can still contribute to society. But crime and punishment is not the issue when do gooders try to address the problem by suggesting such women are not mentally ill and require some outrageous public promises designed to not shame them. The eighteenth century London solution is to have a baby drop place that is safe for the child to be left at anonymously. Children need to have their past, including medical history of family and cultural history and that means they need to be able to know who their mother was, even if their mother is not part of their lives. So the modern baby drop off may be private, but should never be anonymous. 

Victoria's ALP begin predictably, by cancelling a project on infrastructure but wanting to keep the federal money meant for infrastructure. The Victorian ALP are free to squander what they will that is Victorian. However, Mr Abbott prudently planned to make sure that if the plan derailed, the money would not go there. Minorities will run the Victorian senate, but it is too soon to know how many. Greens lose in poll that should have favoured them, with ALP benefiting from the corrupt union campaign. Greens had anticipated 18% of the vote, but received only 11%. Meanwhile the LNP results showed they lost long time core supporters. If you stand for nothing you will fall for anything. They had been a competent government, without being inspired. Andrews, speaking on the ABC Monday, said he could not work as an adult with the federal government. He said they have to be blamed for imaginary health and education cuts first. 

Federally, fall out from the Victorian election has highlighted the ALP have no plan or policy.  They block cuts, but could not replace those with any savings. They created the anticipated $650 billion deficit which could well become more. Clearly the narrative of what had happened in the campaign is wrong. The narrative has it that independent peoples stood up for the CFMEU in support of the ALP. But the fact is that the LNP were right to point out that the ALP were too close to the CFMEU. What saved the ALP was the slush funds and the partisan press who were complicit with covering up the corruption. But Shorten, who has no policy, blames Mr Abbott for the loss of Victoria despite the polling extending two years prior to Mr Abbott being PM. The LNP is made to look bad by the partisan press, but they have done nothing wrong and have worked as an inspired unit. The senate blockage is related to ALP having control prior to July and Palmer's PUP blocking things after. 

Palmer has real power and he abuses it. He met with Lambie. The outcome of their discussions are not yet known, but they will probably favour the ALP. 

People usually have a negative view of politics generally, and the detail becomes too hard to scan. They don't really care about things, but feel the ALP are good for spending money on workers and LNP are good for small business. Which isn't true, but which the partisan press portrays consistently. The ALP are corrupt and negligent and policy less. One example of ALP red tape is highlighted by the fact that Rinehart had to make over 3000 applications to open a mine. The time delays and cost mean Australia is not profitable to mine compared to most other nations. That means that everyone, workers, small business and big business suffer. The only ones who profit are environmental activists. 

Historical perspective on this day

In 800, Charlemagne judged the accusations against Pope Leo III in the Vatican. In 1420, Henry V of England entered Paris. In 1577, Francis Walsingham was knighted. In 1640, end of the Iberian Union: Portugal acclaimed as King João IV of Portugal, ended 60 years of personal union of the crowns of Portugal and Spain and the end of the rule of the Philippine Dynasty. In 1768, the slave ship Fredensborg sank off Tromøy in Norway. In 1822, Peter I was crowned Emperor of Brazil. In 1824,  United States presidential election, 1824: Since no candidate received a majority of the total electoral college votes in the election, the United States House of Representatives was given the task of deciding the winner in accordance with the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution. In 1826, French philhellene Charles Nicolas Fabvier forced his way through the Turkish cordon and ascended the Acropolis of Athens, which had been under siege. In 1828, Argentine general Juan Lavalle made a coup against governor Manuel Dorrego, beginning the Decembrist revolution. In 1834, slavery was abolished in the Cape Colony in accordance with the Slavery Abolition Act 1833. In 1862, in his State of the Union Address President Abraham Lincoln reaffirmed the necessity of ending slavery as ordered ten weeks earlier in the Emancipation Proclamation. In 1864,  Great Fire of Brisbane. In 1865,  Shaw University, the first historically black university in the southern United States, was founded in Raleigh, North Carolina. In 1885, first serving of the soft drink Dr Pepper at a drug store in Waco, Texas

In 1913, the Buenos Aires Metro, the first underground railway system in the Southern Hemisphere and in Latin America, began operation. Also, the Ford Motor Company introduced the first moving assembly line. Also, Crete, having obtained self rule from Turkey after the First Balkan War, was annexed by Greece. In 1918, Transylvania united with the Kingdom of Romania, following the incorporation of Bessarabia (March 27) and Bukovina (November 28), thus concluding the Great Union. Also, the Kingdom of Iceland became a sovereign state, yet remained a part of the Danish kingdom. Also, the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes (later known as the Kingdom of Yugoslavia) was proclaimed. In 1919,  Lady Astor became the first female Member of Parliament to take her seat in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom. (She had been elected to that position on November 28.) Also, the first issue of Diário de Noite was published from Goa. In 1934, in the Soviet Union, Politburo member Sergey Kirov was shot dead by Leonid Nikolaev at the Communist Party headquarters in Leningrad. In 1941, World War II: Emperor Hirohito of Japan gave the final approval to initiate war against the United States. Also, World War II: Fiorello La Guardia, Mayor of New York City and Director of the Office of Civilian Defense, signed Administrative Order 9, creating the Civil Air Patrol. In 1948,  Taman Shud Case: The body of an unidentified man was found in Adelaide, Australia, involving an undetectable poison and a secret code in a very rare book; the case remains unsolved and is "one of Australia's most profound mysteries." 

In 1952, the New York Daily News reported the news of Christine Jorgensen, the first notable case of sexual reassignment surgery. In 1955, American Civil Rights Movement: In Montgomery, Alabama, seamstress Rosa Parks refused to give up her bus seat to a white man and was arrested for violating the city's racial segregation laws, an incident which led to the Montgomery Bus Boycott. In 1958, the Central African Republic attains self-rule within the French Union. Also, the Our Lady of the Angels School fire in Chicago killed 92 children and three nuns. In 1959, Cold War: Opening date for signature of the Antarctic Treaty, which set aside Antarctica as a scientific preserve and banned military activity on the continent. In 1960, Paul McCartney and Pete Best were arrested (and later deported) from Hamburg, Germany, after accusations of attempted arson. In 1963, Nagaland became the 16th state of India. In 1964, Vietnam War: U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson and his top-ranking advisers met to discuss plans to bomb North Vietnam. Also, Malawi, Malta and Zambia joined the United Nations. In 1965, India's Border Security Force was established. In 1966, the first Gävle goat, an annual Swedish Yule Goat tradition, was erected in Gävle. In 1969, Vietnam War: The first draft lottery in the United States was held since World War II. In 1971, Cambodian Civil War: Khmer Rouge rebels intensify assaults on Cambodian government positions, forcing their retreat from Kompong Thmar and nearby Ba Ray. In 1973, Papua New Guinea gained self-governance from Australia. In 1974, TWA Flight 514, a Boeing 727, crashed northwest of Dulles International Airport, killing all 92 people on board. Also, Northwest Orient Airlines Flight 6231, another Boeing 727, crashed northwest of John F. Kennedy International Airport. In 1976, Angola joined the United Nations

In 1981, Inex-Adria Aviopromet Flight 1308, a McDonnell Douglas MD-80, crashes in Corsica, killing all 180 people on board. In 1984, NASA conducted the Controlled Impact Demonstration, wherein an airliner was deliberately crashed in order to test technologies and gather data to help improve survivability of crashes. In 1988, Benazir Bhutto was appointed Prime Minister of Pakistan. In 1989, 1989 Philippine coup attempt: The right-wing military rebel Reform the Armed Forces Movement attempted to oust Philippine President Corazon Aquino in a failed bloody coup d'état. Also, Cold War: East Germany's parliament abolished the constitutional provision granting the Communist Party the leading role in the state. In 1990, Channel Tunnel sections started from the United Kingdom and France met 40 metres beneath the seabed. In 1991, Cold War: Ukrainian voters overwhelmingly approved a referendum for independence from the Soviet Union. In 1997, in the Indian state of Bihar, Ranvir Sena attacked the CPI(ML) Party Unity stronghold Lakshmanpur-Bathe, killing 63 lower caste people. In 2001, Captain Bill Compton brought Trans World Airlines Flight 220, an MD-83, into St. Louis International Airport bringing to an end 76 years of TWA operations following TWA's purchase by American Airlines. In 2009, the Treaty of Lisbon, which amends the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty establishing the European Community, which together comprise the constitutional basis of European Union, came into effect. In 2013, China launched Yutu or Jade Rabbit, its first lunar rover, as part of the Chang'e 3 lunar exploration mission. Also, at least four are dead and 63 are injured following a Metro-North Railroad train derailment near Spuyten Duyvil, Bronx, New York City.
2013
I never watched a Fast and Furious movie. In 2006, on the last day of school, some year 9 wanted to watch one but I couldn't and wouldn't let them. It was rated 'M.' But I also despised the kind of movie .. facile and promoting social vice to the young, packaged as adventurous, edgy and sexy. So the tragic death of one of the stars highlights a vice of mine. I am bitter. I don't like it when the uber wealthy promote bad behaviour which would cripple their fans who might try to copy it. Not everyone has the money to get out of a killing ala OJ Simpson. Or out of Michael Jackson's depraved indulgence. But the death is a tragedy. Test driving a new car into a tree. It wasn't the tree's fault. North of Los Angeles, it was unlikely to be an icy road, although global warming is very disappointingly slight. In some ways, the actor has given his fans a moral message as strong as Diana's. But I'd rather be envious of his highly paid under achieving as an actor. 

Speaking of extraordinary indulgence, we have an abysmal Governor General trying to be sacked for being partisan, and egged on by irresponsible and unprofessional journalists. PM Abbott is unlikely to sack the fool, as it would carry poison over to the next appointment. It is only a few months. And then, I would love it were the GG to face questions, and possibly serve time, for obstruction of justice re Heiner. 


Another indulgence is Gonski. A woman in the NT is knitting wool sourced from her vagina, which she presumably inserts. It is performance art, paid by the tax payer via SBS. Gonski is a similar indulgence which the ALP and press are demanding. No program cut from not honouring Gonski will adversely affect a child. The only result is teachers doing what they are already paid to do. Principals of public schools, taking the lead of the GG, are speaking out and lying about what Gonski cuts mean. which isn't to say that education cannot improve. Centralising education can mean centralising bad practice, as the common core experience in the US shows. But there is an opportunity to expand best practice too. 

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This column welcomes feedback and criticism. The column is not made up but based on the days events and articles which are then placed in the feed. So they may not have an apparent cohesion they would have had were they made up.
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For twenty two years I have been responsibly addressing an issue, and I cannot carry on. I am petitioning the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott to remedy my distress. I leave it up to him if he chooses to address the issue. Regardless of your opinion of conservative government, the issue is pressing. Please sign my petition at https://www.change.org/en-AU/petitions/tony-abbott-remedy-the-persecution-of-dd-ball

Or the US President at
https://www.change.org/p/barack-obama-change-this-injustice#
or
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/change-injustice-faced-david-daniel-ball-after-he-reported-bungled-pedophile-investigation-and/b8mxPWtJ or http://wh.gov/ilXYR

Mr Ball, I will not sign your petition as it will do no good, but I will share your message and ask as many of friends who read it, to share it also. Let us see if we cannot use the power of the internet to spread the word of these infamous killings. As a father and a former soldier, I cannot, could not, justify ignoring this appalling action by the perpetrators, whoever they may; I thank you Douglas. You are wrong about the petition. Signing it is as worthless and meaningless an act as voting. A stand up guy would know that. - ed

Lorraine Allen Hider I signed the petition ages ago David, with pleasure, nobody knows what it's like until they've been there. Keep heart David take care.


I have begun a bulletin board (http://theconservativevoice.freeforums.netwhich will allow greater latitude for members to post and interact. It is not subject to FB policy and so greater range is allowed in posts. Also there are private members rooms in which nothing is censored, except abuse. All welcome, registration is free.
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Happy birthday and many happy returns Josephine SalernoJohn T TranTiffany Lee-Shoy and David Vuong. Born on the same day, across the years. Along with
Juan Lavalle
The silver is ours. The gift production line is open. We have them on air. Antarctica will be free. We can dig the tunnel. Let's party. 
Matches
Hatches
Despatches
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2014
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WINKLER IN SHARK-JUMP DRAMA

Tim Blair – Monday, December 01, 2014 (5:39pm)

An appropriate name, considering the circumstances: 
shark has reportedly leapt from the water during a surf competition involving a mothers club in Coffs Harbour …
Surfer Sharni Winkler told the Advocate “it was real” and that her arms were aching from the frantic paddle back to shore. 
Click for the photograph. Of course, the original Winkler preferred to jump sharks rather than be jumped by a shark:



(Via A.R.M. Jones)
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SOCIAL FABRIC

Tim Blair – Monday, December 01, 2014 (12:45pm)

Feminists should pay more attention to clothes. No, wait – that sounds sexist. What I mean to say is that feminists should pay more attention to the complicated and interconnected issues associated with clothes in the broader context of an oppressive capitalist patriarchy.

Icon Arrow Continue reading 'SOCIAL FABRIC'
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THESE PEOPLE VOTE

Tim Blair – Monday, December 01, 2014 (12:01pm)

Protesters make their various, er, points during the G20 summit:

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GO FOR IT

Tim Blair – Monday, December 01, 2014 (11:30am)

Politics, most of the time, is a necessarily cautious game. This is why the Greens usually hold their party conferences behind closed doors, away from any media attention. No point exposing the public to the absolute madness behind the Greens’ carefully contrived mainstream facade.
There are two circumstances where governments may be justified in taking a risky approach. One is when polls show a large enough lead that even policies which alienate some voters still won’t do enough damage to wreck chances of re-election.

Icon Arrow Continue reading 'GO FOR IT'
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TACOS OPENLY CELEBRATED

Tim Blair – Monday, December 01, 2014 (11:14am)

Joe Hildebrand discovers a hotbed of cultural insensitivity on the north coast of NSW:

image

I bet they didn’t even have any lecturers to explain Mexican history. This looks like a job for the Autonomous Collective Against Racism
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Does Leyonhjelm want his conservative supporters to be equally absolutist with him?

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (7:57pm)

I’m not sure David Leyonhjelm would want to give his many conservative admirers reason to drop off him - not when the Left won’t ever thank him enough to vote for him anyway:
Prime Minister Tony Abbott faces opening up a new battle front in the Senate, with Liberal Democratic senator David Leyonhjelm pledging to block government legislation if MPs are not allowed to properly debate his same-sex marriage bill.
Last week, Senator Leyonhjelm introduced a bill into the Senate that would amend the Marriage Act to allow marriage between same-sex couples, as well as for transgender and intersex Australians.
In response to Mr Abbott’s comments, Senator Leyonhjelm observed that newly independent senator Jacqui Lambie was not the only one on the crossbench who could veto the government’s legislation in protest. 
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Glenn Lazarus taken to hospital

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (1:14pm)

Party leader Clive Palmer says his Senate leader has been taken to hospital for a “condition”.
UPDATE
And Palmer won’t been feeling well after his car-crash appearance at the National Press Club today, with several journalists trying to ask him about his court case. In the end Palmer just kept talking over the questions to stop them being asked, and personally insulted the journalists asking them.
This man is a clown, yes. He is also sinister. Imagine him with real power.
Oh, wait.... 
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Campaigns matter less, performance more

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (12:54pm)

Simon Benson makes a good point about not just the Victorian election:
If the extraordinarily high number of pre-poll votes is a sign of a new phenomenon, parties will have to rewrite the election campaign guide book.
With one million Victorians voting three weeks before the poll, campaigns can no longer rely on a surge of promises in the final two weeks ...
John Howard always said it that you can’t fatten a pig on market day. Never before has that been truer.
(Thanks to reader Peter of Bellevue Hill.) 
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Abbott changes

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (11:56am)

Tony Abbott has heard and is starting to change. His press conference today was probably his longest yet and arguably his best.
We wanted him to show he was listening and learning from his stumbles. He acknowledged last week’s performance was “ragged” and said he would restore the allowances that were being cut from defence services’ pay.
We wanted to him to make changes in his staff. He said highly experienced diplomat Michael Thawley, a top public servant with serious experience in the private sector, would become head of Prime Minister and Cabinet. Yes, he did defend his personal staff, as he should, but he hasn’t ruled out changes there - and should make them.
We wanted him to sound less scripted and more heartfelt.  His tone today - and the sheer length of the press conference - was spot on. This was genuine Abbott being more open about his stumbles and the challenges he was trying to balance.
We wanted him not to treat people like idiots and to stop denying he’d broken promises. He admitted his cuts to the ABC were “at odds with what I said immediately prior to the election”. That’s still not quite good enough. Abbott simply stuffed up in that one interview in mistaking what was clear and explicit and often-repeated policy, but this is miles better than last week’s evasions.
We wanted him to focus more on the purpose to the pain, to describe the sunny uplands. There was some of that, too, albeit not yet enough. Just as importantly, though, he sounded confident, calm and focussed.
We wanted him to ditch the unaffordable - notably the paid parental leave scheme. Well, he won’t quite do that, saying he’d promised it so often, but hinted that it might be further modified to get Senate support.
But we also wanted him not to stray from the central story, and, indeed, to focus more on it - that the nation does face a financial crisis and spending must be restrained if we are to give people jobs. There was plenty of that, and Abbott crucially did not give in on the ADF pay offer itself - a 1.5 per cent increase. We simply cannot afford more, he said.
I thought this was a very promising start.
Abbott needs to give people, especially his critics, a reason or excuse to give him another look, another chance.
That requires him to acknowledge but also to change. We’re getting a fair bit of the first but not yet enough of the second, which will take time. His office needs beefing up, his ministers need some reshuffling, his ministers need to sell harder, his ministers need more freedom, the Government’s policies need sharpening, the constitutional recognition campaign needs to be quietly buried, the job queues need to be tackled, the government needs to show it gets people and is helping them in their daily lives.
Abbott needs to go harder on his strengths - the can-do man and community volunteer. Surround himself with more friends - the quiet doers. Fixing their problems. Lauding their virtues. Giving strength to their arm. Abbott’s Australia.
But after today I am feeling a lot more optimistic about the Abbott Government than I have for a few weeks.
UPDATE
But this remains the greatest threat to the Government’s re-election:
THE torrent of revenue delivered by the resources boom to the federal government has dried up sooner than expected, all but destroying Tony Abbott’s promise to return the federal budget to surplus even if he manages to convince the Senate to pass his controversial savings.
The mid-year budget update, due within weeks, will reveal a deficit blowout of more than $35 billion over the next four years and show that for the first time in more than a decade the state of the economy has become a drag on the budget, according to a report by economic forecaster Deloitte Access Economics....
Deloitte says that sharper-than-expected falls in the price of Australia’s biggest export, iron ore — down more than 35 per cent since May to less than $US70 a tonne — and sluggish wage growth at home have lopped more than $9bn from projected revenues over the next two years alone, rendering hopes of a surplus in 2017-18 “well and truly toast"…
Chris Richardson, head of economics at Deloitte ... points out that about 80 per cent of the deterioration in the budget’s bottom line since 2000 was due to extra spending rather than tax cuts…
At the peak of the boom in 2007, the revenue bonanza was adding about $80bn a year to government revenues but the state of the economy will now subtract $24bn from the budget over the next four years…
In his report, Mr Richardson says the budget delivered in May is “the only road map to structural fiscal repair Australia has”.
“The opposition and minor parties have washed their hands of setting­ out detailed alternatives, preferring populist posturing...”

Where’s Labor’s plan? Why is it actively sabotaging the rescue of the economy? Why is it putting its ambitions ahead of the interests of the Australians who need jobs for themselves and their children?
(Thanks to reader Peter of Bellevue Hill.) 
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Rinehart: more than 3000 approvals just to build a mine

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (9:52am)

A strong speech from mining boss Gina Rinehart on this bizarre culture of crippling the investments we need to pay for all we demand:
Mining is the largest earner of export income generating more than $200 billion in much needed revenue for our country, a country in record debt…
For an industry that delivers so much, wouldn’t you think that there would be just a little more understanding and less negativity for what mining contributes to our country?…

Recently, the Boston Consulting Group looked at the performance of the major exporting nations and put Australia at the bottom of the list… Expensive labor and energy costs were significant and so was low productivity.
Despite all the talk of reform, when it comes to international comparisons, Australia is going backwards. We’re now bundled in with Italy and France.
The report found, our wages grew by 48 percent from 2004 to 2014, but labour productivity remained virtually flat.
In the same period, electricity costs rose by about 60%.
What has definitely grown though is government imposed costs - regulation and compliance.
Deloitte recently calculated that regulation is costing Australia an incredible $250 billion a year.... They estimate the red tape industry unproductively employs more than 1 million people nationwide now – and consider this – compliance has become Australia’s fastest growing sector!
Of course, mining remains THE most regulated of all industries…

When I was at Port Hedland the day before yesterday, for the two thirds milestone of our Roy Hill project, I heard that one Department wants us to spend approximately $3million to re-vegetate an access road which had cost us about $12 million to build. Whereas the locals don’t want the road closed and want to be able to use it after us. Why waste $15 million dollars? And then how much would it take the government to then rebuild with taxpayers money a similar access road, no doubt much more than this!…
We can’t change international commodity prices, and Australians are reluctant to have their wages lowered, so it should be blindingly obvious that we must reduce our costs, so government burdens have to be reduced…
I’ve spoken of our Roy Hill experience with its 3000 plus approvals and licences.
But at a coal project we used to have 100% of in Queensland, guess how many approvals and licences our staff found were required? Firstly they advised after years of searching, over 3000! But later they found even more, more than 5000 approvals and licences were required. And we’re not talking a simple short form . Some of these approvals require thousands of pages to be submitted, a recent approval it was published utilised 500 consultants. If I’d known this beforehand, I doubt I would have even bothered to invest and advance the project.
Contrast the Australian experience to how mining is treated in our competitor nations and we should start to think. Just take for instance the USA, a much more heavily populated and built up country. We’re told approvals and licences required for major projects would be less than 100 in total. I’ve heard as low as 35.
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Russell was right

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (9:30am)

Bertrand Russell:
Much that passes as idealism is disguised hatred or disguised love of power.
Take Damiya Hayden, who has been an Oaktree Foundation ambassador and Australian Young Greens campaign co-coordinator and ticks many of the boxes of the identity politics that define the Left:
I’m a white, queer, disabled, middle class Italian-Australian woman
And her suffering hasn’t made her more conspicuously compassionate:
image
(Via Menzies House.) 
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The devil meets his imp

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (9:11am)

image
Lambie meets with “the devil” who spent up to $700,000 to win her seat for her:
Jacqui Lambie… met Clive Palmer for a drink to discuss her ex-leader’s position on better pay for the defence force.
A photograph emerged on social media on Sunday night showing the pair meeting at Canberra’s Hotel Hotel, a surprising move given the toxic nature of the pair’s relationship…
I did have a meeting with the devil himself,” she told reporters.
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Liberals and Nationals lose loyalists in Victoria. Swing biggest in safest seats

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (9:02am)

Demographer and former Labor Senator John Black says Victorian Liberals lost their base:
...a lead-footed, hesitant Coalition government got clobbered by an effective and populist Labor campaign. On the current political settings, the same thing is likely to happen to Tony Abbott in 2016 for the same reasons....
Saturday’s Victorian swing of 2.5 per cent was not big enough to be emphatic; nor was it concentrated on 2010 Coalition marginal seats, where it picked up six or seven seats out of a dozen marginals....
This means the biggest swings to Labor came from hardcore Coalition voters in seats such as Sandringham, Hawthorn, Bass, Caulfield, Nepean, Benambra, Gippsland, Murray Plains, Werribee, Kew and Warrandyte. Get the picture?
Labor didn’t win this election. Hardcore Liberal voters chucked out their own. Just as hardcore Labor voters chucked out state Labor governments during the chaotic Rudd/Gillard era.
The swing to Labor overall was indeed 2.5 per cent. But the swing in many of the safest Liberal and Nationals seats was much higher.
The swing in Shepparton - 32.5 per cent.
Sandringham - 8.3
Hawthorn - 8.1
Caulfield - 6.7
Murray Plains - 6.2
Warrandyte - 5.6
Kew - 5.6
Brighton - 4.5
Malvern - 4.3
Yes, Hawthorn and Kew had sitting members quit. Special factors were at play in Shepparton, with the Nationals losing to an independent. And, of course, fewer people are rusted on these days, as Labor has already found.
But the message seems clear: the Victorian Liberals and Nationals did not have a happy base.
That’s very true of the Nationals:
The National Party faces losing party status in Victoria, with its state-wide primary vote reduced to about 5.3 per cent, compared to 6.8 per cent in 2010.
Although thousands of pre-poll votes are still to be counted, the Nationals appear to have lost the seat of Shepparton, which it has held for 47 years, to rural independent Suzanna Sheed after suffering a whopping 32.5 per cent swing.
The seat of Morwell is also under a cloud, with Nationals incumbent Russell Northe suffering an 11.6 per cent swing.
Which suggests Abbott’s big push on the Monday after the Victorian election is exactly not what’s needed if he wants to inspire his own troops to fight:
TONY Abbott has stepped up the campaign to recognise indigenous Australians in the Constitution with a passionate and direct appeal to constitutional monarchists, the group most against reforms and the constituency he successfully led to defeat the 1999 republican referendum. Delivering the ­Neville Bonner Oration to Australians for a Constitutional Monarchy on Friday night, the Prime Minister argued that as a “constitutional conservative” he did not want to change the Constitution, just “complete it"…
“The challenge is to find a way to acknowledge Aboriginal people in the Constitution without otherwise changing it,” he told the private function in Sydney.
In an ardent appeal to the group he once led against constitutional change, Mr Abbott said: “I invite the friends of the Constitution to suspend scepticism...”
That Abbott is explicitly and openly taking on conservatives says everything. This is not a winning strategy - to antagonise your allies without placating your foes:
Indigenous leader Mick Dodson ... criticised the Abbott government for contributing to a “discourse of negativity” about Aboriginal people and ...said the government’s focus on child protection, community safety and employment in indigenous affairs emphasised failure.
“The negativity actually makes people sick....”
John Black continues:
Which moves us neatly onto Abbott. His erratic leadership of a cabinet of angry old men is reminding me more and more of the last few months of John Gorton. The problems for Abbott lie not just with his cabinet, an ineffectual Treasurer, an unsellable budget, a bogan Senate and duff policies.
The problems for Abbott start with Abbott himself.
UPDATE
ABC presenter Jon Faine, a Greens sympathiser, gloats that the Victorian result shows elections can’t be won from the radical right, and this was the “last roar of the dinosaurs” of the Liberals. The Liberals must move to the centre.
We know why Faine, who offered no such analysis following the fall of Labor, would want this to be true. But what makes that analysis so transparently self-serving is that is relies on imagining the Baillieu and Napthine governments as radical right-wing.  The exact opposite is true.
Faine has form. This is the same ABC radical who, after the fall of the Howard Government, asked the editor of the Herald Sun if he’d then have a “cleansing” of his conservative columnists (of whom there were but me and Terry McCrann):
JON FAINE: I want to expand our discussion to another aspect of media which I think is quite intriguing as the Rudd Government is about to start it’s first session in the parliament, and that is whether or not the media needs to go through a bit of a rethink, as it would seem, according to last year’s election, the nation has. Have things moved on and have some of the staples of the media in the Howard era worn out their usefulness as we enter a Rudd era? ... I’m going to talk in particular about columnists… and Bruce you have some notorious ones of your own? ...  so you’re not going through a cleansing process?
But Faine called for no “cleansing” of “notorious” Leftists at the ABC or Fairfax (like himself) when Labor just five years later lost the federal election and was left in power only in South Australia. There was no talk then of the “last roar of the dinosaurs”.
To celebrate this morning, Faine gives a very kind interview to the Greens, with none of the rude heckling that he invariably gives to Coalition MPs. The Greens look like holding just one of the 88 seats in the lower house.
Too transparent, Jon.

UPDATE
Excellent piece by Roger Franklin:

Advance your enemies, betray your friends – that might be another epitaph worth inscribing on the Liberal headstone.
As to the next four years, well, it is a horror-show script. For starters, the incoming government has sworn that it will shut down much of the state’s coal-burning capacity to generate electricity. Plus, there are some $30 billion dollars worth of promises, a union thugocracy waiting to issue orders, and emergency service workers to be lavishly rewarded for their truculence with pay raises that will set the scale for many, many more of similar size to come. If Victorians wish to glimpse the future, look not to Andrews’ promises but across Bass Strait, where Tasmania’s basket-case economy sets the benchmark.
UPDATE
Professor Sinclair Davidson:
The problem with the Victorian Liberals is that they are embarrassed by their constituents – they want the votes, but don’t want to deliver. Ronald Reagan is said to have observed that you’ve got to go home with the one that brung you to the dance. Well, true – but before you go home, you’ve got to dance with the one that brung you too.
The Victorian Liberals don’t get that. These are people who won office in 2010 promising to repeal the Charter of Human Rights and by 2014 the same people were campaigning to retain 18c. I can’t imagine why any liberally minded person could ever vote for them – the Victorian Liberals were so useless they couldn’t articulate any reason why they should remain in office either.
(Thanks to reader Gab.) 
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Timid, tongue-tied government in turmoil smashed.  The real lessons for Tony Abbott

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (7:34am)

Politics - federal

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IF you’re a Liberal, be scared. If you’re Prime Minister Tony Abbott, be alarmed. The Liberals should never have lost Victoria’s election. 

No other Victorian government in the past 59 years has been thrown out after just one term.
This one shouldn’t have been, either.
Its Budget is the healthiest in the country. It’s had no major scandals, and no Labor-style desalination plant disaster bleeding billions.
It’s also had no inspirational Opposition. New Labor Premier Daniel Andrews is a man from the Socialist Left who vowed to tear up a massive road contract at God knows what cost, and made at least $24 billion of promises.
Labor even remains formally tied to the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union, many of whose officials have had charges recommended against them by the counsel assisting the royal commission into union corruption. The new Planning Minister is a CFMEU member.
And to make things worse, the Greens, as predicted, may help control the balance of power in the Upper House, and have at least one seat in the Lower House. When did Labor and Greens between them last deliver prosperity?
Yet the Liberals lost. And the Abbott Government may well lose, too, especially if it’s now panicked into repeating the mistakes that helped lose Victoria.
True, Abbott cost the Liberals votes. Labor didn’t put up posters of his face at every polling station because voters love him.
But let’s not exaggerate.
(Read full article here.)  
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Oh dear. Another government needing fringe parties’ support

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (7:20am)

Increasingly we must ask whether upper houses and proportional representation gives us more democracy or more instability:

MINOR parties have claimed ­victory in the battle to control Victoria’s upper house, with the new Labor government likely to ­require support from the Shooters and Fishers Party, the Sex Party or other electoral minnows to pass its legislation

Less than 60 per cent of the vote had been counted by yesterday afternoon, but the early figures suggest Labor will hold 13 seats, the Greens five and the ­Coalition 16 in the 40-seat Legislative Council.

That leaves six seats open, with the possibility that the Shooters could emerge as a major winner with two or possibly three seats.
The Australian Sex Party is also likely to claim its first MP… The Democratic Labour Party and the Country Alliance are also ahead, as is Vote 1 Local Jobs, which ran chiefly in the Western Victorian district.
Created by Moyne Shire councillor James Purcell, who has ­previously stood as an independent, the party opposes foreign ownership of agricultural land...
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Greens support static in Victoria

Andrew Bolt December 01 2014 (7:06am)

Yes, the Greens won at least one seat in Victoria’s lower house and maybe five in the upper. But after polls predicting a vote of up to 18 per cent, the reality is more sober:
When counting resumes on Monday the party’s first preference result will be hovering on the same 11 per cent figure it won four years ago
The Greens celebrate winning Melbourne by murdering plants and handing the corpses to new MP Ellen Sandell:
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.. I lost my feathers long ago .. I'm not a bird .. but .. I'm just like everyone else
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“But the day of the Lord will come like a thief. The heavens will disappear with a roar; the elements will be destroyed by fire, and the earth and everything done in it will be laid bare. Since everything will be destroyed in this way, what kind of people ought you to be? You ought to live holy and godly lives” 2 Peter 3:10-11 NIV
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Morning and Evening by Charles Spurgeon

Morning

"And Amaziah said to the man of God, But what shall we do for the hundred talents which I have given to the army of Israel? And the man of God answered, The Lord is able to give thee much more than this."
2 Chronicles 25:9
A very important question this seemed to be to the king of Judah, and possibly it is of even more weight with the tried and tempted O Christian. To lose money is at no times pleasant, and when principle involves it, the flesh is not always ready to make the sacrifice. "Why lose that which may be so usefully employed? May not the truth itself be bought too dear? What shall we do without it? Remember the children, and our small income!" All these things and a thousand more would tempt the Christian to put forth his hand to unrighteous gain, or stay himself from carrying out his conscientious convictions, when they involve serious loss. All men cannot view these matters in the light of faith; and even with the followers of Jesus, the doctrine of "we must live" has quite sufficient weight.
The Lord is able to give thee much more than this is a very satisfactory answer to the anxious question. Our Father holds the purse-strings, and what we lose for his sake he can repay a thousand-fold. It is ours to obey his will, and we may rest assured that he will provide for us. The Lord will be no man's debtor at the last. Saints know that a grain of heart's-ease is of more value than a ton of gold. He who wraps a threadbare coat about a good conscience has gained a spiritual wealth far more desirable than any he has lost. God's smile and a dungeon are enough for a true heart; his frown and a palace would be hell to a gracious spirit. Let the worst come to the worst, let all the talents go, we have not lost our treasure, for that is above, where Christ sitteth at the right hand of God. Meanwhile, even now, the Lord maketh the meek to inherit the earth, and no good thing doth he withhold from them that walk uprightly.

Evening

"Michael and his angels fought against the dragon; and the dragon fought and his angels."
Revelation 12:7
War always will rage between the two great sovereignties until one or other be crushed. Peace between good and evil is an impossibility; the very pretence of it would, in fact, be the triumph of the powers of darkness. Michael will always fight; his holy soul is vexed with sin, and will not endure it. Jesus will always be the dragon's foe, and that not in a quiet sense, but actively, vigorously, with full determination to exterminate evil. All his servants, whether angels in heaven or messengers on earth, will and must fight; they are born to be warriors--at the cross they enter into covenant never to make truce with evil; they are a warlike company, firm in defence and fierce in attack. The duty of every soldier in the army of the Lord is daily, with all his heart, and soul, and strength, to fight against the dragon.
The dragon and his angels will not decline the affray; they are incessant in their onslaughts, sparing no weapon, fair or foul. We are foolish to expect to serve God without opposition: the more zealous we are, the more sure are we to be assailed by the myrmidons of hell. The church may become slothful, but not so her great antagonist; his restless spirit never suffers the war to pause; he hates the woman's seed, and would fain devour the church if he could. The servants of Satan partake much of the old dragon's energy, and are usually an active race. War rages all around, and to dream of peace is dangerous and futile.
Glory be to God, we know the end of the war. The great dragon shall be cast out and forever destroyed, while Jesus and they who are with him shall receive the crown. Let us sharpen our swords tonight, and pray the Holy Spirit to nerve our arms for the conflict. Never battle so important, never crown so glorious. Every man to his post, ye warriors of the cross, and may the Lord tread Satan under your feet shortly!
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Today's reading: Ezekiel 37-39, 2 Peter 2 (NIV)

View today's reading on Bible Gateway

Today's Old Testament reading: Ezekiel 37-39

The Valley of Dry Bones
1 The hand of the LORD was on me, and he brought me out by the Spirit of the LORD and set me in the middle of a valley; it was full of bones. 2 He led me back and forth among them, and I saw a great many bones on the floor of the valley, bones that were very dry. 3 He asked me, “Son of man, can these bones live?”
I said, “Sovereign LORD, you alone know.”
4 Then he said to me, “Prophesy to these bones and say to them, ‘Dry bones, hear the word of the LORD! 5 This is what the Sovereign LORD says to these bones: I will make breathenter you, and you will come to life. 6 I will attach tendons to you and make flesh come upon you and cover you with skin; I will put breath in you, and you will come to life. Then you will know that I am the LORD.’”
7 So I prophesied as I was commanded. And as I was prophesying, there was a noise, a rattling sound, and the bones came together, bone to bone. 8 I looked, and tendons and flesh appeared on them and skin covered them, but there was no breath in them....

Today's New Testament reading: 2 Peter 2

False Teachers and Their Destruction
1 But there were also false prophets among the people, just as there will be false teachers among you. They will secretly introduce destructive heresies, even denying the sovereign Lord who bought them—bringing swift destruction on themselves. 2 Many will follow their depraved conduct and will bring the way of truth into disrepute. 3 In their greed these teachers will exploit you with fabricated stories. Their condemnation has long been hanging over them, and their destruction has not been sleeping....
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Seraiah [Sĕra ī'ah]—jehovah is prince, the lord is my prince, orsoldier of the lord.
  1. One of king David’s scribes (2 Sam. 8:17; see 1 Chron. 18:16for Shavsha).
  2. The son of Azariah and chief priest at Jerusalem when Nebuchadnezzar took it. This Seraiah, along with other renowned captives, was put to death at Riblah ( 2 Kings 25:181 Chron. 6:14Ezra 7:1;Jer. 52:24).
  3. A son of Tanhumeth, from Netophah, whom Gedaliah advised to submit to the Chaldeans. He was one of “the captains of the forces” (2 Kings 25:23Jer. 40:8).
  4. The second son of Kenez, brother of Othniel and father of Joab (1 Chron. 4:1314).
  5. A prince of Simeon, son of Asiel and grandfather of Jehu, who drove furiously (1 Chron. 4:35).
  6. One of the twelve leaders, a priest who returned from exile with Zerubbabel (Ezra 2:2Neh. 10:212:112).
  7. A priest, son of Hilkiah, dwelling in Jerusalem after the exile and called “ruler of the house of God” (Neh. 11:11;12:1).
  8. A chief man, son of Aziel, and sent by Jehoiakim to apprehend Jeremiah and Baruch (Jer. 36:26).
  9. A son of Neriah and brother of Baruch, a prince of Judah who went to Babylon with Zedekiah (Jer. 51:5961). For “quiet prince” the RV has “chief chamberlain.”
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