Mr Howard's administration has been very good for the entire life of the administration. He shows no signs of losing energy.
An extraordinary campaign, sustained over a long time, has it that Mr Howard is tired and old.
Everyone gets older that lives. Mr Howard has aged gracefully, and well. Some of his political opponents have not travelled well at all. Even in opposition, Beazley, Latham, Crean and now Rudd have appeared flatfooted, witless and weak.
Mr Howard's government has worked tirelessly to improve Australia's lot, from the days of Cambodia's disasterous security situation in the wake of the collapse of Pol Pot, through the reorganisation of indonesia post Sueharto, Timor, Fiji, Afghanistan and Iraq.
Mr Howard has had a strong moral compass when his political opponents were losing their heads over Tampa, several indigenous issues, various industrial relations issues, tax reform and lots more besides.
Yet Howards strengths are declared weaknesses by his enemies, and endlessly reported as such, so that younger people might believe that Howard's administration has done some wrong over Wheat, Child Overboard, Sieve X or indigenous affairs.
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It is extraordinary to me how so many of the mainstream media promote and campaign against Mr Howard. One day, they will succeed.
Monday, August 06, 2007
Prime Minister John Howard's Tasmanian hospital announcement
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Howard is dishonest and too old, party polling reveals
by Malcolm Farr
A DEVASTATING report to the Government's top leaders has warned of crashing voter support and unease over John Howard's age.
The confidential dossier outlines a recovery strategy for the Howard Government and makes it clear that voters are looking to Labor's Kevin Rudd for a generational change.
It contains a damning critique of the Prime Minister as old and dishonest, while Mr Rudd is seen as genuine and accessible.
The Government had to stop Labor setting the agenda, stress its economic management record, and paint Labor as a risk - or it would face electoral oblivion.
The advice came in a detailed, confidential report, "Federal State of Play - Oz Track 33" by pollster Mark Textor on June 21.
Mr Textor and former Liberal federal director Lynton Crosby own Crosby/Textor - consultants who provide key polling and strategic advice to the Liberal Party.
Their recommendations are a major element in the Government's bid to wind back Labor's substantial opinion poll lead.
Mr Textor warned there was a broad expectation Labor would win the election, and the Government had to fight back.
In a section encouraging the Government to take on the states, the report said the Government had "bought" policy dominance on water, health and roads failings.
It now needed to "emphasise that the Commonwealth is bailing out ineffective and inefficient states".
The report confirmed that age was an issue in this election between Mr Howard, 68, and Mr Rudd, about to turn 50.
And it tracked important groups - including the so-called aspirational voters who helped elect Mr Howard in 1996 - who have recently shifted to Labor.
Nationally, the defections have been led by what the report calls "new Labor" - voters aged 18 to 24 whose numbers rapidly increased when Kevin Rudd took over from Kim Beazley as labor leader.
Part-time workers, voters aged 35 to 49 and "lower white/upper blue" collar workers - most of the middle income bracket - also were moving to Labor.
The Crosby/Textor analysis detected a medium swing to Labor in NSW and Victoria, and found only a small swing away from the Coalition in Queensland.
There was a relatively large swing to Labor in South Australia and in Western Australia, although the Coalition still had the lead there.
It also reported a large swing away from the Coalition in Tasmania and the Northern Territory - constituencies who recently received big Government funding projects.
Crosby/Textor reported that the Federal Budget, which announced $31.5 billion in tax cuts over four years, was a political dud for the Government.
The report said the Budget demonstrated sound economic management and displayed a "better team" in the contest between Treasurer Peter Costello and shadow treasurer Wayne Swan.
However, it also helped Labor by highlighting issues on which Mr Rudd had the stronger hold.
Certainly, the report notes, "it failed to bring about a change in votes" favouring the Government.
"Instead, it had the effect of increasing the salience of education, environmental and infrastructure issues," it said.
"Labor is seen as more capable in these areas, so that they gained positioning from them and general focus."
The Liberal Party federal council meeting in Sydney in early June also didn't put the Government on the front foot, and might have cost it support.
During the council meeting, the closest the Liberals have to a national conference, the Government released and endorsed a taskforce report on a carbon trading system designed to lower harmful emissions.
Crosby/Textor said that, while the meeting demonstrated leadership, it failed to highlight the Coalition's team strengths.
"Vote was actually lost over this period because announcements on the environment played to Labor's strengths - they gained positioning on this area," the analysis said.
PM's rates attack 'desperate' - Costa
from news.com.au
THE Federal Government's attempt to blame the states for interest rate pressures is complete nonsense and smacks of political desperation, the NSW Government says.
NSW Treasurer Michael Costa hit back at suggestions the state governments were increasing interest rate pressures through heavy borrowing for infrastructure projects.
"There's absolutely no evidence that the NSW Government's borrowings for infrastructure, and for that matter other states - with the proviso that it is for required infrastructure - is actually doing anything of the sort,'' Mr Costa said.
Mr Costa agreed the NSW borrowing program was at record levels, with about $50 billion slated over the next four years for essential infrastructure.
About 40 per cent of that would be borrowed, he said.
"In terms of borrowing we're seeing absolutely no pressure on our Treasury Corporation to offer greater returns for people to take on that debt that's the real test,'' Mr Costa said.
The desalination plant had provided an immediate test on the borrowing program, and it had showed the "exact opposite of cost blowout'', he said.
"You can only go on the evidence and there's no evidence at this stage,'' Mr Costa said.
"The issue is what are our debt levels going to be at the end of this program, and this is the salient fact - our debt levels will be less than they were when we came into government, at the end of this ambitious program.''
The bulk of economic factors influencing interest rates lay beyond the control of both state and federal government, Mr Costa said.
"The Federal Government is absolutely desperate, they take credit when the economy's going well, when they're in difficulty they want to blame the states,'' he said.
Voters fear Work Choices
from news.com.au staff writers
WORK Choices has caused widespread feelings of panic, fear and disempowerment among voters, according to the Government's own research.
The findings appear in a confidential briefing paper prepared by the Department of Employment and Workplace Relations to help formulate the $37 million television and print advertising campaign promoting the Workplace Authority and featuring its chief, Barbara Bennett.
The research, obtained by The Australian, shows most people believe the Work Choices industrial relations laws have hurt working people and their families.
The public blames the reforms for a fundamental shift in the Australian way of life from "work to live" to "live to work".
Fear campaign 'to blame'
Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey today blamed a union and Labor "fear campaign" for whipping up feelings of panic and distrust about the Government's Work Choices legislation.
Mr Hockey today said the legislation had been written with the best interests of the community at heart and had delivered higher wages and more jobs.
"But there is no doubt that the scare and fear campaign launched by the trade union movement and the Labor party ... has had some impact in the community," he told ABC radio today.
But Opposition industrial relations spokeswoman Julia Gillard today said the advertising campaign on the laws was ''desperate politics".
No amount of advertising was going to convince Australians the laws were good for working families, she said.
"This polling research shows where this advertising campaign came from,'' she said.
"This advertising campaign didn't come from an intention to inform Australians about what they can and can't do at work.
"This campaign came from an intention to try and bolster their election chances.
"It's all about desperate politics from a government that has lost touch with working Australians, and nothing shows that more than these extreme industrial laws.''
Fairness test
Mr Hockey acknowledged the Government made the wrong decision in not including a fairness test in the original Work Choices legislation, but had since rectified that.
Asked how much money the Government and its agencies had spent on focus group research and polling over the Work Choices laws, Mr Hockey said: "I haven't got any figures in front of me."
He said the Government was trying to get the message out about how the laws work and combat the "sophisticated" union campaign against them.
The research, dated April 20, came before John Howard softened Work Choices in response to community concerns, adding a fairness test to ensure employees earning less than $75,000 could not be made worse off by signing an Australian Workplace Agreement.
The research reports "key emotions" in the community of fear, panic, insecurity, cynicism, distrust and disempowerment over Work Choices.
'Like a guillotine over our heads'
"It's like there's a guillotine over our heads," said one respondent quoted in the research. "Stability is gone."
"The kids will think it's great to get five days' annual leave and a bowl of rice," said another.
"This is just the start."
"They legally can't force you to sign a contract ... but get real ... they victimise ... make it so unbearable to be at work, you choose to quit," said another.
Adveristing 'a waste of taxpayers' money'
Mr Hockey said the early research helped inform the Government on how best to communicate with the community about the system.
"It was also very clear that people did not understand how the law actually worked as a result of the misinformation and lies being promulgated by the unions and Labor party."
But the Government's research confirms the $45 million advertising blitz in 2005 to promote Work Choices was largely a waste of taxpayers' money.
"The main advantages (people) have heard about the system are not reassuring: flexibility is usually seen to be an advantage to the employer rather than to the employee," the paper states.
"The two images that have formed in the community's minds ... are, firstly, that of a pendulum that has swung too far in favour of employers (especially big business), and secondly, that of the little guy pitted alone and unprotected against the might of the big corporations and their lawyers (and the Government)."
- WIth The Australian and AAP
Don’t blame me, I’m just the prime minister
By Tim Dunlop
I’m sure you are all aware that John Howard’s new it-is-vital-I-stay-PM-forever campaign involves pretending that everything bad that happens in Australia is the fault of those damned Labor Premiers while everything good that happens can be attributed to him and his government. So while Australia is doing brilliantly—we’ve never had it so good, according to Mr Howard—the individual states have never been so bad. In further analysis, Mr Howard said that it was great Geelong were doing so well in the AFL this year, but that the individual players were all crap.
Of course, Mr Howard’s “analysis” has nothing to do with reality and everything to do with political desperation. In a report from the Coalition’s own polling company, the authors identify why they think the PM and his government are travelling so badly in the polls:
A DEVASTATING report to the Government’s top leaders has warned of crashing voter support and unease over John Howard’s age. The confidential dossier outlines a recovery strategy for the Howard Government and makes it clear that voters are looking to Labor’s Kevin Rudd for a generational change.
It contains a damning critique of the Prime Minister as old and dishonest, while Mr Rudd is seen as genuine and accessible.
In response, they suggest the very strategy—blame the states—that Mr Howard is currently using as a way of fighting back:
Mr Textor warned there was a broad expectation Labor would win the election, and the Government had to fight back. In a section encouraging the Government to take on the states, the report said the Government had “bought” policy dominance on water, health and roads failings.
It now needed to “emphasise that the Commonwealth is bailing out ineffective and inefficient states”.
It’s a brilliant strategy, isn’t it? Having identified that one of the government’s big problem is that Mr Howard is seen as dishonest, they suggest a dishonest campaign of state-bashing and blame-shifting in response. No wonder these guys get paid the big bucks. Thus we get the ridiculous spur-of-the-moment decision to fund a hospital in Tasmania, and we are now to be treated an actual television campaign blaming the states for the raise in interest rates. All of it has nothing to do with economic management or good public policy: it is merely a re-election strategy, straight from campaign headquarters.
Great way to run a country, eh?
Mr Howard rationalised the strategy in his radio address this week: “...when a government, be it state or federal, goes into debt it must borrow the money to finance that debt, competing with private businesses for available funds. This puts upward pressure on interest rates.”
As Peter Martin explains, this “would get him failed if he used it to answer a question in an economics exam at any time in the last 20 years”:
For the last two decades, as a result of reforms championed by John Howard among many others, Australia has had open capital markets. Governments, as well as individuals, have been able to freely borrow from abroad. There is no longer a limited stock of “available funds”.
If one party (say, a state government) borrows more, it no longer means that another party (say, a private company or a home buyer) needs to borrow less or bid up the price in higher interest rates.
It would if the borrowing by Australian state government was huge on an international scale. But guess what? It’s not. Australia is a price-taker, not a price maker when it comes to international interest rates.
The Reserve Bank is likely to push up interest rates this week because it is worried about inflation. If John Howard really wanted it not to, he could have withheld the $21 billion in tax cuts he just pumped in to an already superheated economy.
The Senior Strategist from TD Securites concurs:
“Any sensible economist will tell you at the moment that economic growth is going to accelerate over the course of this financial year,” he said.
“We’ve got $21 billion of tax cuts that came into force in July. We’ve got heavy infrastructure spending which while great in the long run creates price pressures in the short run. Consumer spending remains strong, business investment has got a second wind, real wages are rising, unemployment is close to a 32 year low.”
“While the Minister talks about the headline yearly measure of inflation, inflation is now is accelerating and the Reserve Bank needs to act in order to contain it,” he said.
Anyway, get used to it. From now until the election, everything good that happens in your life, Mr Howard will be taking credit for it. Anything bad that happens will be blamed on the States. If interest rates go up this week—and many are predicting they will—that will have nothing to do with the Howard Government, it will all be down to the States. But if rates remain on hold, that will be because of the Howard Government and no credit at all will belong to the states. Simple really, isn’t it?
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