Lessons From Penrith

As with all politics, nothing happens in a vacuum. Penrith is surrounded by other suburbs. Federal, state and local politics play their role. Perception of parties and loyalties come into play. It is a fact that the swing against the incumbent in the recent Penrith by election was the largest ever for the seat, and possibly Australia. And still there are some nine months before the next state election. The seat on offer had belonged to Karyn Paluzzano who had been Education Parliamentary Secretary for the ALP NSW government. Paluzzano had been caught lying about rorts she was involved with, and so resigned. The people have since voted, and now it is time to work out what the voice of the people is saying.

In 2007 Paluzzano was given 48.7% of the first votes, with preferences leading to 59.2% of the vote. Libs got a corresponding 32.6% of first preferences and 40.8% party preferred. Greens got 5.6% of first preferences. At the by election, with 85% of the vote counted, ALP were given 24.5% of the first preferences and got a 33.5% of the two party preferred. Libs achieved 51.5% of the first preference votes and 66.5% of the two party preferred. Greens got 12.1% of the first preferences and gave a minimum of one quarter of their vote to the Liberals in two party preferred terms.

Assuming those who vote first preference Green favor environmental policy framed in radical left terms, then 25 percent of their voters favored the Libs over ALP. It is worth examining the meaning of that. The Libs offer a positive environmental policy. Mr O'Farrell's party has not released all the detail yet, but we know it is different from the ALP's in many ways. The ridiculously expensive desalination which favors ALP developers but not the people of NSW is likely to not be the major thrust of a Liberal government, but more sensible policy, with water recycling so as to prevent pollution to the oceans and possibly, cheap dams built to sustain the peoples of NSW into the future. Infrastructure is likely to be developed, reducing the strain on roadways from private vehicles as the people of NSW have grown accustomed to the necessity of cars under the ALP. Expect public transport to be developed under a NSW Lib government, and roads and parking to be improved. Meanwhile, the ALP are for taxing homes, taxing cars, raising fees for public transport but not improving it. ALP stand for expensive water and less of it. Traffic jams and pollution are the results of 15 years of Labor. In the 2007 election, Penrith was promised by Iemma he would turn the state around. He failed to do that and resigned. Then Rees failed and now Keneally is failing. Clearly Penrith greens recognize that the ALP have nothing to offer them. Admittedly at most 75% of Greens supported the ALP, but note that even with all the disasters to befall Penrith, 24% of voters still support the ALP on first preferences too, and over 33% on preferred counts. Despite all the disasters and no relief in sight, 33% are still willing the ALP to win.

It is also important to note that one more Liberal member in parliament will not change much. To achieve an improvement in running NSW, the Libs need to be in government (in coalition with the Nats).

In the lead in to the by election, Keneally claimed to stand by her candidate, but she was rarely seen in Penrith and she wasn't present with her candidate on the evening of the vote. Also Keneally later said that the result was expected. So why did she lie, if it wasn't for political reasons? Why did ALP pollsters wear shirts claiming to be Greens and trying to get Green voters to vote for their preference to the ALP? Why the dirty tricks? Keneally, your dishonesty has been noted in this instance, and it will make your job more difficult down the track, not less. Maybe Keneally is expecting a hiding next March, but if that happens, it will be deserved for the party which has failed to adequately govern since assuming office in '95. But also, if Keneally's behaviour is any guide, it will be deserved because she personally lied to the NSW people daily about important things.

It should not be forgotten that the morning before the election a NSW paper ran a column claiming that the Libs were running a dirty campaign. This is simply not true, as subsequent reports highlight. The campaign, with O'Farrel showing a leadership role, was clean. Similar headlines have shown at elections in the past and so it becomes increasingly difficult to trust those news sources.

It is the brand of ALP that is suffering at the moment, with Federal issues surely playing out in Penrith too. The failure of Rudd to achieve anything worthwhile, despite his gushing assurances in 2007, is playing hard for sitting ALP members. The other day Rudd spent $2 billion on a positive headline regarding Telstra and his broadband pork barrel. Apparently the pork barrel which is estimated at $43 billion, but which will surely cost more if it is to ever work, will deliver an old technology years down the track to all Australia households at very high cost. Further, the Telstra deal will return Australian households to a monopoly situation, like the seventies, when a broken handset will need to be fixed by a government body.

The federal brand has not just suffered in the instance of mining tax. Although Mining tax was an unnecessary imposition which will limit the industry in future, even before implementation. The mining tax is viewed by the ALP as a necessity in order to have an election pork barrel. In one instance, the collection of the funds will allow the ALP to make promises that a conservative government won't make because they won't claim the tax. So the ALP can promise more. Also, the mining tax allows a campaign by the ALP to be waged with federal funds, and some $38.5 million has been placed in the vote ALP war chest.

The tax and the election fund break numerous Rudd promises, but Rudd has gone on the record of saying 90% of his election promises have been kept. It is difficult to know of any promise the Rudd government has kept. Even as Rudd was making his faux apology to Australian Aboriginals, his government had hired lawyers to explore repealing the intervention into the top end. Even as Rudd signed Kyoto, his government was betraying all the environmental plans it had spruiked. Rudd promised to run a government as an economic conservative, and then began spending from a surplus to 30% GDP deficit. Rudd panicked the market to lift interest rates, and then when there was a threat of recession, he had interest rates lowered, but this will mean years of pain as the future governments work to reign in the ridiculous spending and waste. Insulation, BER, Hospital care, Stimulus payments, ETS, Optic Fibre plans, Internet censorship, politicizing the Governor General, suppressing debate and more have come from the PM's office under Rudd. He is rude to his underlings and undiplomatic with foreign emissaries. Teachers sometimes say that 90% of their class is good while some 10% let the whole class down when really everyone is behaving badly. Maybe this was what Rudd meant about his government? Yet even so, with all this taken into account, Penrith still gave their ALP some 33% of the 2 party preferred vote, and that is worrying.

More locally, we have two ALP incumbents, Jason Clare federally and Joe Tripodi in the state government. Clare is a relatively clean skin, new to parliament in '07 and a quietly, but well spoken young man. He is tipped to be PM material in the future. However, he has been quietly spoken in this outrageously inept and corrupt government and I don't think his electorate deserves that kind of shabby treatment. In the issue of migration, Rudd has exploded the number of boats coming to Australia through poor laws. The result has been untold suffering and deaths among the worlds most desperate peoples. This is outrageous and Jason should have spoken out against this. Similarly, the issue of Hamidur Rahman is a party issue, not merely a state issue, and Jason should not be hiding from it, but should be addressing it so that he can show the people of his electorate he is a clean skin and won't stand for party corruption. On that issue Jason has been silent too. For that reason, come the next federal election, I intend to run against Clare. I may do so as a Liberal, or as an independent conservative with a Liberal policy agenda. I expect, even with all his failings, Clare will be difficult to beat.

Tripodi is another failed ALP government person the electorate doesn't need. From Wollongong to the Orange Grove affair, from laughing at those dying on roads in country NSW to lying in parliament about meeting with Canley Vale HS Principal about gangs and guns in Canley Vale (circa 2000). Tripodi has failed people in his electorate. In his failure to address the corruption issues surrounding Hamidur Rahman, and adding problems for the whistleblower who highlighted the issue, Tripodi should be booted from office. If I fail against Clare I will have a go against Tripodi.

Piers Akerman has outlined a sequence of events which compellingly suggests corruption among the Rudd administration, but the Australian population will need to go to the polls to oust them, and overcome that rusted on percentage of ALP supporters. Maybe if Rudd tried doing something worthwhile, and supported Australia and Australians he would find it easy to garner Australian support. As it stands, he is fighting to keep the rusted on supporters of the ALP through a vicious campaign of dirty politics. I believe he is doing this because his ambitious underlings are gunning for him, and he needs to protect his backside too. It is too late for Rudd .. and too late for the ALP. They had a golden opportunity to show what they stood for after 2007, and they chose self interest. Rudd will have plenty of times he can reminisce after he leaves politics .. which should be soon. He can think about what would have happened had he run a decent administration instead of the one he has. The ALP government was amoral from the start. The low point is only a reflection of where they are now. They can get lower. They either knife Rudd and show they are divided, or they desperately cling to Rudd and fail to show they are united. Either way, the ALP will get lower before an election is called.

The Rudd Mining plan is half baked, like Health Care, ETS, BER, Insulation and any of many other offers. It failed, but the idea behind it was to divide the nation into envy and jealousy. It will crush industry if it gets implemented, and many tens of thousands will directly lose their jobs and whole towns will fold. Rudd politics is that divisive. But Penrith will rise and fall on ALP failure more local. The previous member took them for granted. Kenneally takes them for granted. They have voted in someone who won’t. The stunning thing is how many rusted on ALP supporters still vote ALP.

The electorate needs a party which will stand for small business and their employees. In many ways, the Liberal party satisfies those needs. However, the Liberal party has a far broader policy agenda. The Greens have a long standing history of patronage with the ALP, a small business (and their employees!) party could work very well with a Liberal party too. Small business has suffered horribly under Rudd. The ALP are not ignorant of the value of business, but actively hostile to it. They have varied reasons for their stance. Some see it as practical to court big business as the rewards are larger and more immediate from that patronage. Others are socialist and feel small business is a threat to their ideals which espouse poverty for all. I am for my home town. I am for migrants. I am for small business, and I respect big business for what it offers the community. I am for small business employees who have aspirations of owning their own business, and having substantial say as to their destiny. I oppose corruption and think it important there is probity and transparency in government process and action. I am for the land of my ancestors and friends. I am for justice, for compassion, for fairness and for the great things of our community. I am for unity. I will, if I achieve office, represent all my constituents, and not just pork barrels and creditors.