=== Todays Toon ===
FUTURE HANDBAG CALLS ITStrewth, can we be original..... just once!
A 'psychic' crocodile has predicted a Gillard victory
Didn't a flamin European Octopus do all this stuff before and it ended up as an entrée?
I think the truth behind the Paul the Octopus phenomenon, had a lot to do with an attractant chemical that was used to lure the creature to the correct team. I could be even more cynical and say that this would have helped the bookies and those with vested gambling interests in the results of the 2010 World Cup, thus was used to set the odds.
There is no doubt that there are a few bucks on this political race and maybe someone wanted to improve the odds for a Gillard win. - ZEG
Clearly he got it wrong - ed.
=== Bible Quote ===
“By day the LORD directs his love, at night his song is with me— a prayer to the God of my life.”- Psalm 42:8=== Headlines ===
'We Are Changing the Climate': Clinton Links Floods to Warming
Secretary of state joins other officials in claiming deadly Pakistan floods are linked to climate change, even as scientists say such a connection to individual disasters is difficult to pinpoint.Israel: Iran Nuke Plant 'Totally Unacceptable'
Israel says the fueling of Iran's first nuclear reactor is 'totally unacceptable,' urges greater world pressure on Tehran
Somalia Rebels Mirroring The Taliban?
Somalia is looking more and more like Afghanistan under the Taliban, with both countries lacking a central government and pushing a Islamist militia that bullies the public into submission
Will God Decide the Midterm Elections?
With just over two months to go until November, curveball social issues have jolted a campaign season that until now has been about job creation and fiscal discipline
Breaking News
Van Gogh thieves arrested at airportTWO Italians were arrested at Cairo airport trying to smuggle out a Van Gogh painting stolen from a museum.
Woman gets trapped in manhole, drowns
A 23-year-old woman has drowned after getting trapped in an uncovered manhole during heavy rain in Illinois.
Four die, 64,000 evacuated in floods
FOUR people died and more than 64,000 were evacuated in China as heavy rain sparked serious floods along the North Korean border.
Goat, Great Dane, three-leg pal reunite
AN unlikely trio of best friends - a goat, a Great Dane, and a three-legged retriever - have been reunited at a Texas pet orphanage.
Man stabbed to death in Times Square
A 25-year-old man has been killed in New York City's Times Square after a bar fight spilled out onto the street.
Woody Allen praises Carla Bruni's acting
US film director Woody Allen praised French first lady Carla Bruni-Sarkozy's acting after working with her on a movie he is shooting in Paris.
Bedbugs found in Empire State Building
AN infestation of bedbugs has been found at one of New York City’s best-known landmarks, the Empire State Building.
TAFE to offer degrees in NSW
TAFE institutes are to offer bachelor degrees and could compete with universities for students under a bold plan aimed at combating skills shortages.
Judge orders drug seller to write essay
A US judge has an unusual sentence for a man who sold marijuana to a police informant in a casino parking lot.
Bus drivers get self-defence classes
BUS drivers will be given self-defence classes amid fears about safety on public transport.
NSW/ACT
Fire brigade training puts lives at riskDEFICIENT training and a low priority on education could result in firefighters or members of the public being injured or killed.
Threats sent to councillors before blaze
LIVERPOOL councillors received threats from opponents of a Muslim school before the chambers were burnt down.
Mountain tourist trade slowly dying
OFFICIAL figures confirm a gloomy reality: tourists are turning their back on the Blue Mountains.
Schools hit on parents for $50m
PUBLIC schools in NSW stung parents for a staggering $50 million in voluntary fees last year.
Purebred pet owners fleeced
THE gentle giant of the canine world, the St Bernard, may have a big heart - but his affection comes at a cost.
Egg donation plummets
A LACK of egg donors is forcing a record number of women to seek fertility treatment overseas.
Queensland
Bligh is finished, says LNPANNA Bligh will be lucky to last another six months as premier after federal Labor's bloodbath in Queensland, the state opposition says.
Split tyre blamed for fatal crash
A TEENAGE girl and a man have died after two devastating car crashes in Queensland yesterday, bringing the state road toll to 151.
Water's: We'll work with the winners
QUEENSLAND'S first Greens Senator Larissa Waters spoke at Northey Street City Farm and said her party will work responsibly with whoever wins government.
Labor hopes shattered in QLD
IN the end, Queensland did matter. The bloodbath in New South Wales turned its focus north and it became a juggernaut.
Bevis still hopes to retain seat
LABOR incumbent Arch Bevis has not given up hope of holding onto the seat of Brisbane as 7000 postal votes remain to be counted.
U2 to tour Australia in December
SUPERGROUP U2 has thrilled Australian fans by announcing concert dates in Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth in December as part of its U2360 degrees tour.
Police vehicles sitting idle
HUNDREDS of police vehicles are sitting idle at stations across the state, clocking up only a few kilometres a week.
U2 to bring huge tour to Brisbane
MUSIC superstars U2 are bringing the world's biggest-ever rock show to Brisbane in December.
Sacked cop claims unfair dismissal
A POLICE constable accused of rape and sacked from the Queensland Police Service is claiming unfair dismissal.
Talbot will gifts $300m to charity
BILLIONAIRE mining mogul Ken Talbot has left nearly a third of his vast fortune to charity in his will.
Victoria
Govt gets tough on knivesPEOPLE in Victoria caught illegally carrying knives or other controlled weapons face a $1000 on-the-spot fine from today.
Bull crushes woman in accident
UPDATE 1:01pm: A BULL has sandwiched a woman against a fence in Kinglake.
Four killed in horror weekend
THERE has been another death on Victoria's roads, taking the weekend's toll to four.
Bashing fears on Melbourne's trains
TRAIN travellers on two of the most notorious lines have told police they believe their odds of being attacked are greater than one in two.
Aged fed on $5 per day
NURSING home residents across Victoria are being fed a starvation diet costing a little more than $5 a day, leaked documents reveal.
The tranquillity of Warragul
THIS week, Your Street visit Stoddarts Rd, Warragul, where farms are retreating to make way for housing. HAVE YOUR SAY
Greens win in Melbourne
GREENS candidate Adam Bandt is claiming a historic victory in the seat of Melbourne which has been held by Labor since 1906.
Four dead in horror day on roads
FOUR died in a horror day on Victoria’s roads taking the state’s road toll to 209.
Gillard's rock star reception
PRIME Minister Julia Gillard was given a rock star reception as she voted in the 2010 Federal Election.
Northern Territory
Man 'punches horse in head' in brawlA WILD melee ended with a police officer in hospital after a brawler allegedly punching a horse in the head a number of times.
South Australia
Clean-up after napthalene leak on shipHAZMAT crews have been called to Outer Harbor ,where a container onboard a ship is leaking napthalene oil.
Two killed in SA crashes
TWO people have been killed in separate crashes on South Australian roads this weekend.
Knife-wielding thieves hit hotel
THIEVES armed with knives this morning robbed the Marina Hotel at Port Lincoln before fleeing in a stolen car.
Doctors set for flying run
THEY are used to flying through the air, but on September 19 they will be cruising at a much lower altitude.
Meet prom princess Mary
LOOKING more yummy than mummy-to-be, Princess Mary was the epitome of European style at an exclusive party in the city last night.
Local Digger killed in Afghanistan
SOUTH Australia suffered its second death in the Afghanistan conflict on Friday when Private Tomas Dale, 21, was killed in a horror day.
Labor clings to Boothby hopes
LABOR refuses to concede the knife-edge seat of Boothby, as Liberal Andrew Southcott carries a 710-vote lead into the counting of postal votes.
Sex assault on suburban bus
A WOMAN has been assaulted on a bus in Sefton Park.
One dead in Gawler smash
ONE person has been killed in a single car crash about 20km north of Gawler.
Woman pulled from burning car
A WOMAN has been pulled from the burning wreck of her car after it crashed into a parked vehicle in Adelaide's northeast.
Western Australia
Mourners to remember shark victimA COMMEMORATIVE service will be held today for 31-year-old Nicholas Edwards, who died after being attacked by a shark near Gracetown.
Man, 19, dies in Wheatbelt crash
A 19-YEAR-OLD man died last night when the car he was driving hit a tree 300km east of Perth.
House sprayed by bullets in drive-by shoot
A BAYSWATER house was peppered with bullets early today in an apparent drive-by shooting ambush.
Man hides casino jewels in bottom
A MAN is charged with attempting to steal more than $300,000 of jewellery from Burswood Casino by allegedly hiding the gems in his buttocks.
Knuckle dusters used in robbery
A MAN robbed a video store near Mandurah last night threatening terrified staff with a stick and knuckle dusters.
Man stabbed outside Perth pub
A 36-YEAR-OLD man is in Royal Perth Hospital after he was stabbed outside a North Perth pub this morning.
Tasmania
Nothing new=== Comments ===
Blood on the floor is a stain on LaborPiers Akerman
THERE is one resounding message from the 2010 election - Labor is in dire straits, no matter if they have fallen over the line, lost the election or the result ends in a hung parliament. Even as the party faithful were handing out the how-to-vote cards yesterday, the numbers men were toting up the percentages and the deposed prime minister, Kevin Rudd, was seeking support for a comeback bid.
He believes - and there is a solid argument to be made - that Gillard, who most benefited from his betrayal by elected and non-elected party officials, has not delivered the leadership she was supposed to when she spearheaded the June 23 coup that brought him down.
His model is Sir Robert Menzies, who returned as the longest-serving Australian prime minister (1949-1966) after a brief first-term coalition government was cut short (1939-1941) when minority members crossed the floor. Not that Rudd will find much personal support among his Labor colleagues. It has been widely noted that the damaging leaks against Gillard that destabilised the first weeks of Labor’s election campaign stopped as soon as she sat down with the man she had politically assassinated and brought him back to the fold (or at least neutralised him) for the remainder of the campaign.
My colleague Linda Silmalis reports elsewhere in the newspaper that outgoing Senator John Faulkner was sent to Rudd’s Brisbane hospital bedside to show him the poor polling the coup plotters used to justify their action. Faulkner could have shown equally poor polling to Gillard a week or so later. Labor strategists agree, though, that their campaign was never able to move beyond Rudd’s unprecedented dismissal by party members in his first term of office.
The plotters, Gillard, Senator Mark Arbib, a former NSW ALP secretary, and his successor and current national ALP secretary Karl Bitar, along with Victorian MP and former AWU boss Bill Shorten and the current AWU boss Paul Howes, will be remembered for bringing on Rudd’s defeat and failing to have a successful plan to sell Gillard as his replacement. Even those who had some admiration for Gillard as deputy prime minister concede that she floundered when given the top job.
She has not solved the mining-tax issue by having secret talks with the three largest mining companies (all foreign-owned), she has not resolved the climate-change issue by appointing yet another unelected committee to a talkfest, and she has not done anything to stop the flow of illegal boat arrivals with her vague talk about an offshore refugee processing centre in East Timor, a nation most unsuited for such a purpose.
Gillard had the chance to sell herself to the electorate as a leader but was unable to distinguish herself as anything but a prominent member of the same government which she said had “lost its way”.
She did not, however, have a strategy to distance herself from that record. She did not apologise for any of the Rudd-Gillard government’s mistakes, the dumped GroceryWatch and FuelWatch, the mismanaged and scrapped insulation scheme, the failed Green Loans scheme, the wasteful BER project.
She did nothing to restore relations with China, whose leadership Rudd had dismissed as ratf ... ers, with Indonesia, Japan, India or our Pacific neighbours.
When Rudd was jerked from the political stage because all the polling showed Labor would be unelectable unless he was removed, the government also lost the opportunity to run on any elements of its record. It could hardly tell the electorate that it had both “lost its way” but also kept on track. The plotters failed to deliver a plan for the morning after their coup.
As rebel Victorian Electrical Trades Union secretary Dean Mighell said last week: “I think you will see a lot of bloodletting after the election within the ranks of Labor.”
Specifically, he said members of Labor’s NSW Right faction would be targeted and some of the major unions that played a role in Rudd’s sacking, a significant nod to the AWU’s Howes - who was seen on national TV acknowledging his union’s influence on MPs as Rudd was being executed.
As Labor explores yesterday’s election result, the principal target for the remaining MPs’ wrath will undoubtedly be the NSW powerbroker, Arbib. Former Opposition leader Mark Latham last week marvelled that the senator, only 38 years old, had “already ... knifed six party leaders: in NSW, Morris Iemma and Nathan Rees; and in Canberra, Simon Crean, [Latham], Kim Beazley and Rudd”.
Quite a bloodstained record but a coup is only successful if the replacement leader manages to hold leadership beyond the revolution. Lining up to challenge within Labor are Tony Burke, whose Population portfolio was relabelled with the campaign-eve addition of Sustainability in a bid to defuse the immigration time-bomb, and Financial Services Minister Chris Bowen.
On the other side of the political spectrum, Tony Abbott is perceived to have performed well beyond expectations.
In just nine months he delivered a unified Coalition, he remained true to the Liberal message throughout the campaign, and he defied those who tried to portray him as reckless and unreliable.
He has built a solid base within the Liberal Party and though perennial rumours of challenges from Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey persist, there is universal admiration for his performance.
Though democracy has been served, the political process has undoubtedly been damaged by the negativity of the 2010 campaign, particularly from the Labor side.
Labor began the campaign with a series of lies about Abbott’s role as health minister.
It was only in the past 10 days that his Labor successor Nicola Roxon finally admitted that he had not stripped $1 billion from the health budget as she and her Labor colleagues had loudly claimed.
This campaign has seen an avalanche of lies and deceit of unprecedented proportion, most of it directed at Abbott. Voters must demand more from their leaders. A return to civility would be just the first step. - The ALP have failed on many levels, as have the media which were complicit in their seizure of power in ‘07. The ALP provided no policy but feel good slogans, and it was always going to be tough on them this election because they had no way of showing they had kept promises when they had promised nothing if people felt bad. They have tried to blame the GFC for their bad performance.
Of concern to me is the inability of the MSM to properly examine what may be out and out corruption on the part of significant elements of the ALP federally and within state politics. I refer to the issue of Hamidur Rahman, but I might easily refer to a host of other issues, from the assassination and kidnapping of senior government in Timor, through to deliberate lies repeated to the public. I found in my campaign that ALP is hurting and divided from the top down. However they have a loyal base who are taken for granted by the MSM and ALP leadership .. so that one local newspaper failed to lodge an article on the candidates for my local seat, and my local MP, ALP, failed to campaign at home as he spent his time by the side of Gillard as Education Secretary .. he was an idiot responsible for the BER too, and the local paper covered it up. - ed.
===
How Could an American President Be so Anti-American?
By Rusty Weiss
After an initial grace period in which most Americans were willing to give a new president the benefit of the doubt, what this nation has steadily watched is a man and an administration almost exclusively governing against the will of the people. While the crux of his predecessor’s low approval ratings were in fighting an ‘unpopular war’, President Obama is watching his own approval rating plunge due to an unpopular, well, everything else. His record has been so blatantly in contrast to the will of this nation, that it could very nearly be defined as anti-American.
The latest example of this can be seen in the president’s decision to voice his support for the construction of the Ground Zero mosque. While CNN called his message regarding the mosque ‘incoherent’, Americans understood his initial comments quite clearly – and they’re not taking kindly to hearing their president express support for a project that they overwhelmingly oppose. Nearly 70 percent of Americans object to the mosque being built on hallowed ground. (Yes, the site was actively involved on 9/11 when the landing gear assembly of one of the planes used in the attack crashed through the roof of what was then a Burlington Coat Factory).
Why is there such opposition? Because the people aren’t buying into the administration’s talking points on this matter. What they understand, and what the administration fails to understand, is that this building has nothing to do with religious freedom. Muslims are not being prohibited from practicing their religion. They are simply being asked to display a sense of decency by building the mosque in an area not directly involved in such an emotional event for our nation; away from the site where thousands of lives ended in a declaration of war from radical Islam.
America understands common sense and decency. It appears our president does not.
The Ground Zero mosque certainly hasn’t been the only example of the Obama administration fighting hard to ignore the voice of the people. It is almost as if White House briefings indicate the mood of the country, and the president subsequently instructs his staff to move in the opposite direction. (more at the link)
===
BLOODLETTING UNDERWAY
Tim Blair
How bad was federal Labor’s campaign? So bad that even NSW Labor is criticising it:
Federal Labor’s election campaign was “atrocious” in the first few weeks, New South Wales Premier Kristina Keneally says …And then she did exactly that:
“Labor’s campaign in its first few weeks was, let’s be blunt, atrocious,” she said.
“It really did make it very difficult for Ms Gillard to speak about her positive plans, her vision ... and her commitments.”
Asked to elaborate, Ms Keneally said she would not apportion blame.
“Certainly the leaks were incredibly damaging to her campaign,” she said.That’s a direct shot at Kevin Rudd. Keneally doesn’t forget.
===
ELECTION 2010 IV
Tim Blair
Julia Gillard speaks ... and it’s a big reach-out to her possible government partners: “Congratulations to the independents and the Greens ... I believe in all members of the lower house, etc ... I remind you that I have a good track record working with Greens and independents in the house of representatives.” Julia, for one, welcomes her new insect overlords:
UPDATE. Peter Costello noticed: “She began her speech by congratulating and naming the independents.” They should brace themselves for a Labor charm offensive. Unleash lovable Julia!
UPDATE II. Chinese, Taiwanese … they all look the same.
UPDATE III. Tony Abbott speaks: No gloating. Cautions against triumphalism, warns of hard work ahead. Celebrates the election of an indigenous Australian to the lower house. Builds to a powerful message: “What is clear tonight is that the Labor party has definitely lost its majority, and what that means is that the got has lost its legitimacy.” Notes that 400,000 more Australians voted for the coalition parties than voted for Labor. Says he will talk to independents about forming government – but declines to suck-up.
UPDATE IV. Former Age and SMH IT deputy editor (and ongoing contributor to both those titles) Adam Turner found himself unimpressed by Abbott:
Listen to this c**ksucker gloat when he hasn’t even won … Young Liberals, I fkn hate Young Liberals … this a**ehole is trying to make a victory speech, complete with cheersquadVia expert leftoid-teaser Robert Candelori: “I was waiting for this guy to cry.”
UPDATE V. 3AW’s Steve Murphy gets way ahead of himself:
History has been made with Julia Gillard becoming the shortest serving Prime Minister the country has seen, with the exception of when we had caretakers who temporarily assumed the top job on the death of an incumbent …Not just yet, Steve. It’s entirely possible that Labor – either through a break in late counting or by making deals with independents, or (more likely) a combination of the two – will hold government. We just don’t know, which makes life interesting for someone who has to write a column about this today. Maybe I’ll call Dave and we’ll come up with another cartoon …
The defeat of a first term Labor Government, after spending almost 11 years in the wilderness during the Howard years will rock Labor to its core.
UPDATE VI. Labor fan Simon Polson at the beginning of the night:
taking a moment to remember how lucky we are to live in a country where we have the right to voteLabor fan Simon Polson a few hours and possibly one or two drinks later:
F**K C**T F**K S**T F**K C**T C**T C**T F**K ARESEWANKS**TF**KBOLLOCKSC**TF**KHEADEDHOLEFAGF**KC**TSomething must have happened in-between times.
(Via wreckage)
UPDATE VII. Further from the speech that so enraged Laborites:
Mr Abbott said 400,000 more Australians had voted for the Coalition than at the last election, and Labor had polled the lowest vote of any governing party since WWII.By contrast, Gillard’s speech was made to a room “only half full of shellshocked Labor faithful.”“I say on this remarkable night in political history, the Coalition is back in business,” he said, to rapturous applause.
===
ELECTION 2010 III
Tim Blair
At this point (8.38pm) neither Nick Minchin nor Stephen Smith believe their respective parties have the numbers to win. Bring on the chaos! Current swings, according to the ABC:
QLD: 5.7 per cent to Coalition
NSW: 4.9 per cent to Coalition
VIC: 0.9 per cent to Labor
SA: 0.6 per cent to Labor
TAS: 4.7 per cent to Labor
That island ain’t right.
UPDATE. So much for the theory that Kevni was adored in Queensland:
Former prime minister Kevin Rudd is facing a swing against him of more than nine per cent, early counting in his Brisbane seat of Griffith shows.The Kevni Fan Club. God love them.
But his 44 per cent of the primary vote has been greeted with spontaneous applause and shouts of ‘’he’s won it’’ by about 50 supporters at the Easts Leagues Club in Coorparoo.
UPDATE II. Greens geek Adam Bandt on global warming: “We’ve got ten years to turn it around.” Why does this deadline keep shifting? Get on with it, already. I demand that the earth be destroyed.
UPDATE III. The longer Kevin Rudd keeps talking, the more I understand why Labor got rid of him. Rudd’s sense of self-regard seems to have increased with his removal from the top job. Even the ABC eventually tired of him, cutting back to the tally room coverage after several agonising minutes of Ruddspeak. As Kerry O’Brien explained: “It could go on for some time.”
UPDATE IV. Paul Howe just claimed that tonight was “a big defeat for the Liberal party.” Congratulations must be due, then, to Julia Gillard and her team on a magnificent campaign. Well done. Meanwhile, Liberals are happy in London.
UPDATE V. About 45 minutes ago, the ABC’s “seats won” column gave 71 to Labor. Now it’s down to 68 – tied with the Coalition. Nine’s numbers: Labor 66, Coalition 63. (And now the ABC has the Coalition one in front, on 69.)
UPDATE VI. The thoughts of Maxine McKew, one-termer: “We shouldn’t be on a knife-edge and we shouldn’t be losing … the difference between the hope and the joy we generated three years ago and the solemness now … I would still be the representative for Bennelong if Labor ran the same professional, disciplined campaign we ran in 2007.”
McKew also claimed that the institutional strength of the Australian economy was solely due to Labor’s three years in power, proudly noting that: “Everyone I know has got a job.” Except for you, Max. (Incidentally, although her time in office was brief, McKew represented Bennelong for longer than Rudd survived as Prime Minister.) (Further: Maxine’s comments are the beginning of the post-election Labor bloodletting.)
UPDATE VII. Family First gone from the Senate. Wyatt Roy, 20, on track to win a lower house seat in Queensland; impressive talker.
UPDATE VIII. Andrew Wilkie – a WMD believer, despite attempts to rewrite history – could win in Tasmania. If he makes it, Wilkie can fight with Adam Bandt for the title of Australia’s most sanctimonious and preening lower house politician.
UPDATE IX. Bob Hawke: we’re hung. By the way, I have no idea who the woman is to Peter Costello’s right on Nine’s panel, but she’s the television equivalent of an internet troll. Apparently this result is an “indictment of the Abbott leadership.” Costello’s response: “If you want to believe that, you’re on your own.” (Thanks to readers: it’s Christine Wallace, and she’s one grumpy sheila. In fact, she’s just scolded everyone: “I think the behaviour of the panel tonight has been pretty crap.")
UPDATE X. Let’s visit the unhappy house of Catherine Deveny:
7yo just said “I’m going to commit suicide if Tony Abbott gets in.” That makes two of us.Deveny later asks if readers might be “up for mass suicide if Tony Abbott gets in.” Dave Dreimann replies:
jokes aside many will consider taking their lives tonight. If you are worried about a loved one or yourself call 131114(Via Dan Lewis)
• Election 2010 continues, and will do so for days. Previous posts here and here.
===
LEAK THIS
Tim Blair
Trouble for Julian Assange:
Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is wanted in Sweden where he has been accused of rape, the prosecutor’s office said today.Comments closed on this post. Legal reasons. You understand.
“Julian Assange is wanted for two different issues, one of them is that he’s suspected of rape in Sweden,” the director of communications Karin Rosander said.
He was unable to say what the other accusation was or whether the search warrant was international.
According to the Swedish daily Expressen, the 39-year-old Australian is also wanted for assaulting a woman.
UPDATE:
Assange addressed the report on WikiLeaks Twitter page, saying “the charges are without basis and their issue at this moment is deeply disturbing”.UPDATE II. Warrant withdrawn:
Swedish prosecutors have withdrawn an arrest warrant for the founder of WikiLeaks, saying less than a day after the document was issued that it was based on an unfounded accusation of rape …
“I don’t think there is reason to suspect that he has committed rape,” chief prosecutor Eva Finne said, in announcing the withdrawal of the warrant. She did not address the status of the molestation case, a less serious charge that would not lead to an arrest warrant.
===
ELECTION 2010 II
Tim Blair
Voting now closed on the east. A Ten News exit poll predicts … a hung parliament!
UPDATE. Live Sky News feed - starring Bob Hawke, who is perched happily next to Kristina Keneally.
UPDATE II. Extremely early counts in the following seats:
• Corangamite: swing to Liberals of 4.6 per cent.
• Leichardt: swing to Liberals of six per cent.
• Dawson: Already being counted by the ABC as a Liberal win.
• Brisbane: Arch Bevis behind in early counting.
• Bennelong: Four per cent swing to Liberals.
Again, these numbers are tiny and early, but still promising. The overall swing against Labor in NSW is 4.2 per cent; the swing against Labor in Victoria is 1.1 per cent. Primary votes overall at 7pm: Labor 37.5 per cent, Coalition 44.8 per cent, Greens 10.5 per cent.
UPDATE III. NRL caller Dan Ginnane notes this comment from NSW premier Kristina Keneally on Sky:
“Gillard literally pulled this campaign back by her teeth.”Responds Dan: “Literally? As in you’ll be literally thrown out on your ass?”
UPDATE IV. Interesting line from Labor’s Stephen Smith on the ABC. He believes Eden-Monaro will remain in Labor control, but that it will no longer be a bellwether seat. Joe Hockey on Labor: “Whether they win or lose, we think they’ll tear themselves apart.” Further on that here.
UPDATE V. Via Nilknarf, here are those Peter Garrett batts mentioned earlier by Annabel Crabb:
UPDATE VI. By this time (7.51pm) in 2007, Antony Green had cautiously predicted a Labor win. Four minutes later, Bob Hawke claimed victory. It isn’t so clear in 2010, although at 7.45 Green mentioned that the ABC’s online people wanted to “turn the prediction on”. Presumably they’re talking about a national prediction. What might it be?UPDATE VII. Nearly six per cent of the vote counted. Coalition 54 per cent, Labor 46 per cent. Swings against Labor: six per cent in Queensland, four per cent in NSW. Goodbye, Maxine. Largest number of informal votes since 1984.
UPDATE VIII. Quick verbal prediction from Green gives Labor 76 seats and victory by the narrowest possible margin. We now have 42 per cent of votes counted, but none yet from WA.
UPDATE IX. Shaun in Townsville:
My friend didn’t take a HTV card because she didn’t want to waste paper but then forgot which party Julia Gillard was in.Well, no wonder.
UPDATE X. It’s over for Maxine McKew, but Greens candidate Adam Bandt will likely win in Mlebourne – thanks to Liberal preferences. In Warringah, Sex Party candidate Austen Tayshus has won just 2.7 per cent of the vote.
• Election 2010 continues. Previous installment here.
===
Still mocking Abbott, guys?
Andrew Bolt
James Paterson holds to account the journalists and Labor hacks who thought Tony Abbott a loser.
Gavin Atkins does more naming and shaming of those who mocked Abbott.
===
Gillard beats Rudd again
Andrew Bolt
In other election news, Gillard beats Rudd by 56,736 votes to 428.
Seems like the glowing report on the ABC’s Australian Story didn’t help Rudd as much as he might have hoped.
===
Arrived too late to vote
Andrew Bolt
Lucky for Labor that the arrival - and this announcement - didn’t come a little earlier on election day:
A boat suspected of carrying asylum seekers has been stopped off the northwest coast of Australia. Home Affairs Minister Brendan O’Connor said the vessel, carrying 23 passengers and two crew, was intercepted late on Saturday near the Ashmore Islands.UPDATE
Why the delay in telling us?
LABOR has been accused of delaying the announcement of an asylum boat intercepted yesterday to avoid jeopardising its chances in crucial marginal seats...
A spokeswoman for Home Affairs Minister Brendan O’Connor announced the arrival of the boat in a statement emailed to the media at around noon today.
But the vessel was intercepted at 2.09pm (AEST) yesterday, just as voters were heading to the polls in crucial swing seats in Western Australia and outer metropolitan Sydney.
There is normally a four-hour delay between the time a boat is boarded by the Navy and the issuing of a press release heralding its arrival.
===
How this deadlock could be broken
Andrew Bolt
Above is how Antony Green sums up the state of play.Now let’s add up the seats to try to reach a majority of 76. The Greens’ Adam Bandt will back Labor and the former Greens candidate Andrew Wilkie (should he win Denison from Labor) would want to. The three ex-Nationals independents would probably prefer to back a Coalition government, not least because their electorates aren’t big Labor supporters.
That gives the Coalition 75 seats to Labor’s 72, with three Labor seats undecided. If all three of those seats go to Labor, the result is a dead heat - 75 all.
What could change the deadlock?
A: The Coalition will win one of the three Labor seats most in contention - Lindsay, Corangamite and Brisbane. (And it won’t lose its very narrow lead in Hasluck.)
Of those Labor seats, the Coalition’s best chance is in Brisbane, where it leads 50.68 to 49.32, with 70 per cent of the votes counted. That’s a lead of just 1042 votes. If that falls and nothing else changes, the Coalition will have a majority of 76 to 75, if it gets the ex-Nationals independents’ support.
B: The Coalition persuades Andrew Wilkie to support it, in exchange for reforming Parliament and handouts for his seat of Denison. He might figure this kind of deal will secure his re-election the next time around, since he relied so heavily on preferences deals this time, not least the preferences of the Liberals.. Then again, most of his support came from the Left, his natural home. And, of course, it’s far from sure he will indeed win.
C. The Coalition plays a wild card and offers Kevin Rudd the job of Speaker, in a massively enhanced role much like that of the Speaker of the British House of Commons. It would come with other reforms of our parliamentary system. True, there are many reasons to laugh at the suggestion. Rudd is a Labor man, and doubtless believes he may be leader again. He’d be vilified as a Labor rat. Labor would go hunting for his seat at the next election. But many in Labor will want him finished right now, blaming him for the leaks they claim killed their chances. The hatred for Rudd already is intense among many in Labor. And a reform of the role of Speaker and the operation of Parliament would be a genuinely good thing.
D: Labor persuades the three ex-Nationals to support it. Labor can argue that the only option for providing stable government - if Labor, Bandt and Wilkie together reach 75 seats - is for these independents to give Labor the final seats it needs to form a majority. Even better, such a deal would also provide Labor with the numbers for a speaker. Even if Labor loses Brisbane, the deal would still give it 76 seats, and a majority. The three ex-Nationals say they’ll decide their support as a group.
E: Labor wins all four of the marginal seats in doubt, including Hasluck. Then, with Bandt and Wilkie (or his Labor rival in Dennison) it will have 76 seats, and a majority of two. But Labor is behind in both Hasluck and Brisbane.
F: Another election.
Of the above, options A, D and E strike me as the most likely.The first gives us Tony Abbott as Prime Minister; the two other Julia Gillard.
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Congratulations, Prime Minister whoever
Andrew Bolt
Scary, that the winner of the election will be decided on some combination of the Greens’ Adam Bandt, anti-Iraq-war conspiracist and former Greens candidate Andrew Wilkie (if elected) and the three former Nationals-turned-independents - Bob Katter, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott.
Julia Gillard last night gave a speech pitched already at winning their support, congratulating each and laying out her wares.
In the meantime, some preliminary conclusions:
- Tony Abbott comes out of this election with his stature immeasurably enhanced. When he won the leadership last December by a single vote, the Liberals seemed headed for a wipeout, many commentators claimed. The Liberals campaign rested almost solely on his shoulders.
- Julia Gillard has her own stature damaged. Her stridency at the end was damaging, some of her policies (citizens assembly, cash for clunkers) were laughable, and many will (unfairly) ask whether her assassination of Kevin Rudd was a mistake.
- It’s not NSW but Queensland that is toxic for Labor. Labor’s 2PP vote in NSW is 49 per cent, but in Queensland 45.
- Labor recriminations could be severe.
- Effective government is going to be difficult whoever wins, and perhaps more so for the Coalition. Not only will the Prime Minister have to govern with the support of Greens and/or independents, but will also face a Senate with the Greens holding the balance of power.
UPDATE
- The 50.69 to 49.31 two-party-preferred vote for Labor suggests a crucial drop in support of more than a percentage point in just the last couple of days of the campaign. Was it Tony Abbott’s colourful 36-hour campaigning burst, which brought him some of the best pictures on the stump? Was it Gillard’s burst of shrillness, making Labor seem desperate and the real risk? Was it the revelation that Labor’s broadband would cost consumers hundreds of dollars to hook up to, and that Gillard might introduce a carbon price in the next three years?
- Who do you think independent MP Katter would lean to, being a climate sceptic and turn-back-the-boats hardliner?
- Tony Abbott’s speech last night sounded closest to one of victory and was extremely courteous and gracious.
- Labor’s recriminations will make it seem the weaker horse to back.
- Kevin Rudd will be seen as the man who killed Labor’s chances, not just because he was so inept a leader, but so vicious a leaker.
- Abbott’s growth into the leadership of his party is one of the most remarkable - and dare I say heroic - things I’ve witnessed in politics.
- The crowd cheering Abbott’s speech cheered loudest when told that the House of Representatives would probably now have its first Aboriginal MP - Ken Wyatt - and he is a Liberal. The first Aboriginal Senator, Neville Bonner, was also a Liberal, and the party will take enormous pride in this,
- Parliament has become more diverse - the first Aboriginal MP in the Lower House, the youngest ever MP (20-year-old Wyatt Roy), the first Muslim MP (Ed Husic) and the first Greens MP elected in a general election (Adam Bandt).
- What if Abbott offered Kevin Rudd the Speaker’s job?
UPDATE 2
The election could be a dead heat. Wilkie is firmly of the Left and the Greens’ Bandt has said he will back Labor. If you presume the three ex-Nationals MPs lean to the Coalition, we have 75-75 as the most likely result. It’s moments like this - when we may be looking for a deft and apolitical Governor General to resolve the deadlock, and command respect for her call - that we must wish Quentin Bryce had not been such a political player under Kevin Rudd, and so flagrantly in support of his agenda.
If we have a dead heat, my guess is that one or more of the Independents will decide to back Labor rather than send the country back to the polls. Gillard will be Prime Minister by the closest possible margin.
But I again suggest: what if Abbott offered to make Kevin Rudd Speaker with enhanced powers and a guarantee of independence?
UPDATE 3
Bob Katter, one of the MPs who could decide who wins, notes that he was personally attacked on TV last night by Nationals leader Warren Truss. “Julia Gillard would have had a smile on her face.” Tony Windsor has said the only person in Parliament he won’t work with is the National’s Senate leader, Barnaby Joyce.
Katter adds that the three Independents think national broadband is “super” important.
Gillard is looking a little stronger than Abbott.
UPDATE 4
On the other hand, if Brisbane goes to the Coalition, and there are no other surprises, then the three ex-National MPs could give Tony Abbott a “stable” majority of two - minus a Speaker.
That would require a lot of fence-mending, however:
Two of the independents whose vote appears crucial to forming a minority government have expressed loathing for Barnaby Joyce, one of the Coalition’s most prominent frontbenchers.
While many election analysts suggest the independents, all former Nationals MPs, are more likely to side with the Coalition, Bob Katter and Tony Windsor have derided Mr Joyce; with one calling him a fool and the other labelling him a “piece of incredible unfortunateness.’’
Mr Katter said he had not yet decided where his support would go, but pointed to continuing issues with former Nationals colleagues - and concerns over the Coalition’s broadband policy.
He also said it was unfortunate that the Nationals leader Warren Truss “attacked me personally last night’’.
‘’And (Nationals Senate Leader) Barnaby Joyce...a similar piece of incredible unfortunateness.’’
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Never mind the war crimes in Afghanistan
Andrew Bolt
The great moralising Julian Assange claimed he was in danger from US authorities after he released military files on the war on Afghanistan. Well, he is in trouble, but from Swedish authorities, not US:WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange, whose whistle-blowing website caused uproar last month with a leak of secret U.S. military files on Afghanistan, is wanted in Sweden on charges of rape and molestation, the National Prosecutor’s Office said on Saturday.(No comments.)
Assange, whose whereabouts are unclear, denied the allegations on WikiLeaks’ Twitter page."The charges are without basis and their issue at this moment is deeply disturbing”.
Assange, an Australian, was in Sweden last week to discuss his work and defend his intent to publish further documents on the war in Afghanistan. He has close contacts in the Nordic country, where WikiLeaks has said it keeps some of its servers.
“We can confirm that he’s wanted. He was charged last night—the allegation is suspected rape,” said Karin Rosander, Director of Communications at the National Prosecutor’s office.
“One is rape and one is molestation,” she said, without giving details.
UPDATE
The warrant is withdrawn:
Swedish prosecutors have withdrawn an arrest warrant for the founder of WikiLeaks, saying less than a day after the document was issued that it was based on an unfounded accusation of rape …
“I don’t think there is reason to suspect that he has committed rape,” chief prosecutor Eva Finne said, in announcing the withdrawal of the warrant. She did not address the status of the molestation case, a less serious charge that would not lead to an arrest warrant.
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